UFC 186 : What We Learned, What We'd Rather Forget

Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson has arrived at the unenviable position of 'too good.' He has dismissed every challenger seemingly with a wave of his hand and the Flyweight division is nowhere deep enough to keep the opponents coming. There's not even an undeserving loud mouth such as Chael Sonnen or Conor McGregor fans would love to see him pummel. Many, even me, at times call his fights boring. But show me another champion anywhere that dominates a fight and does exactly what his coach tells him and finishes the fight anyway with one second left? Exactly. Unfortunately for Mighty Mouse this is also a popularity sport and not everyone can appreciate his level of dominance. In this instance, I'd rather hate the Game than the Player.

• Don't get all in a frenzy about Rampage's return. He fought at catch weight which means he was out of shape. Period. More concerning though is he fought against a guy known for not backing down and striking back at all times. A poor man's Provodnikov, but Maldonado never fired off. He was literally the punching bag I thought he was.
• I wonder if Joe Rogan has ever seen a Michael Bisping fight. His pace and cardio have won him most if not all his fights. 
• On that note, Bisping did cement his spot as Dana White preferred Middleweight gatekeeper.
• Makdessi did what bulls do and flattened Campbell. But Campbell was having his way until that point. Makdessi has to tighten up his defense if he expects to rise in the division.
• Wow. Thomas Almeida is the real thing. But should a 14 year old be fighting professionally? The kid can take a punch and certainly deliver that Chute Boxe trademark death knell.
• Ton of praise for Patrick Cote's "evolution" as an MMA fighter by the commentating team. He learned a little wrestling. A little. That's all. It's not like he went out and won the worlds in jiu-jitsu and wrestling or something. Standing he might have finished the fight but it seemed he was fighting for the win, the infamous 'gameplan.'
• Sarah Kaufman is a very formidable foe on her feet. She'll hurt you. Take her down and it seems like she's that kid thrown at the deep end of the pool by her father every Sunday yet refuses to learn to swim.

I'll finish again with the champ. He's the first and only champion in a fairly new and thin division. That's not his fault. If he didn't exist we'd be talking about how competitive the UFC Flyweight division is and how no one could keep the belt very long. Give him praise for his accomplishments. Watch him, he's worth a few dollars. Certainly more than watching Jon Jones fight a glorified never-has-been Middleweight in defense of his Light Heavyweight title.

UFC ON FOX : Rockhold vs. Machida

UFC on FOX was put together on the premise that the victors would provide either a clear cut #1 contender for the UFC Middleweight belt or at least which two contenders would fight to deduce the #1 contender. With Yoel Romero dropping out due to injury, Ronaldo Souza will have to deliver a highlight performance to stay in the running for that spot because Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is as fan friendly and PPV worthy as any matchup the UFC has put on.

At middleweight, Lyoto Machida (+125) is 3 - 1 with his only loss a very hard fought decision one against unbeaten champ Chris Weidman. With the exception of his quick KO loss in his rematch against Shogun Rua, it's difficult to say Machida has ever looked bad against anyone. Machida presents a difficult puzzle for anyone at anytime. He is swift, moves in and out, world class footwork and striking. There are no two Lyoto Machidas. One can not prepare for what he brings into the Octagon. The knock on Machida though has been he tends to react not act. He Waits on his opponent. If he can not entice his foe to act recklessly or engage, Lyoto at times seems to stand still. This holds true especially for high level opponents. But if he can get his opponent's distance and timing and/or he does not fear them, his results have been above par. Machida strikes from unexpected places and angles. He can put together multiple strikes and not just from his hands. He is equally adapt at knees and kicks. He has some of the best takedown defense in MMA but will use his Judo to take his foe down at his will.

In Luke Rockhold (-145) Machida will face for maybe the first time someone with almost the same skill set if not better. Just like Machida, it's impossible to find a match in which Rockhold looked bad. His loss against Vitor Belfort was short and he simply fought a legend in one of his many primes who unleashed a kick few could have avoided on that night. Aside from that moment, Rockhold has looked every bit the All American he is billed as. He has seemed a bit stiff at times but in his last few fights more fluidity has showed. He possess a powerful and aggressive stand up game. Rockhold usually strikes with discipline and fire. I have yet to see him back down from a fire fight, but he does not throw caution to the wind. More importantly, he possesses the ability to control where the fight will take place. Rockhold has finished many of his opponents via submission so going to the ground with him would not necessarily equal a win. He is very strong which has been a struggle for Machida in the past. Rockhold did defeat Jacare but that was a much different Jacare we are witnessing today. In fact, Jacare should thank Rockhold for the fighter he has become. That loss taught Jacare he needed to improve all aspects of his game, not just the ground game. In total, Rockhold's good locks are just a front for a fighter on the verge of a title shot.

Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em fight with Rockhold as a slight favorite. I tend to think that Rockhold's aggressive style is tailor made for Machida. Allowing Machida to find openings and holes. Yet, the agressive style may also make Machida clam up and become strictly defensive. The fight should remain on the feet throughout. Meaning the aggressor will probably win. Rockhold was caught once. Belfort posterized him. But he didn't come back gun shy or timid. He came back determined. Machida has fought the toughest in the UFC. This is nothing new for him. But at the top of the top, he has fallen short more often than not. I give this one to Rockhold via unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight.

The rest of my picks:

Jacare KO's Camozzi

Swanson decisons Holloway

VanZant decisions Herrig

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UFC Fight Night : CroCop vs Gonzaga 2

UFC Fight Night : Gonzaga vs. CroCop 2

Eight years after Gabriel Gonzaga (-175) immortalized himself and posterized Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic (135) by turning the tables on the head kick king of MMA, the rematch is set. UFC brass setting the rematch in Krakow, Poland is a huge statement on the draw power of the main event combatants. Nonetheless a fight night we have, an interesting one at that.

Right kick hospital. Left kick cemetery. That was the pre-2007 CroCop. At their first meeting, CroCop was coming off his (anyone's really) biggest achievement. The previous year CroCop won the Pride Absolute Grand Prix defeating Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on the same night. Ask any champion in any organization to do that now. He had finally arrived in the UFC and looked sluggish in his first outing, but won. The match against Gonzaga was simply a rest stop on his way to a title bout against Randy Couture. Gonzaga ended those hopes and changed CroCop's career with a high kick at the end of round 1. Does CroCop have an answer or something different now?

Since his match against Fedor Emelianenko foes became aware that CroCop didn't do well when not allowed to set. Fedor kept him retreating, never allowing him to unleash his patented offense. CroCop does not deal well with opponent's who either don't fear him or don't fall at his strikes. He has not only become gun shy due to multiple recent KO and TKO losses and his 40 year old body does not function the way it used to. CroCop still has some power left in him, it's a matter of his being able and willing to unleash it. He can no longer dart in and out and sprawl the way he used to and has always had a tendency to keep his hands low. See the Gonzaga KO. Is CroCop a shot fighter? Hard to tell. But the physical attributes that placed him at the top of the heavyweight division and masked some of his shortfalls are no longer there. He is still not someone you want to stand and bang with, taking chances. On the feet is his best chance at victory, via multitude of strikes.

Gabriel Gonzaga conversely has deteriorated in the years since the first fight, but remains the better all around fighter. I do not believe in luck in sports, especially MMA. Athletes are highly trained, disciplined and prepared. I do believe that 98 out of 100 times Gonzaga does not land that kick on CroCop. Before that the fight was fairly even with Gonzaga spending some time on top. But Gonzaga did land that kick. Since that fight Gonzaga has been Ko'd or TKO'd 6 times out of 8 losses. Like many grapplers who find success in MMA using 4oz gloves, Gonzaga has fallen in love with his striking, believing he can stand with anyone if he did against CroCop. Maybe a seventh knockout loss will convince him otherwise. Gonzaga is top heavyweight grappler and submission specialist. He needs to focus on takedowns and ground control to win this fight. If he does so, he could easily win by submission or earn a late stoppage. CroCop will have no answer for his ground and pound. But if Gonzaga decides he can KO CroCop again, he is flirting with disaster. He does not have the footwork or strike savvy to back up CroCop, especially in round one with a fresh CroCop. And if CroCop can set and unload, right kick hospital, left kick cemetery.

In a pick 'em fight, one would expect Gonzaga to play it safe, especially with his UFC career most likely on the line. But Gonzaga has repeatedly and disastrously shown he believes he can stand with anyone. He forsakes his takedowns and gets lulled into a stand up battle he can't win. He does not posses a weak chin. In the heavyweight division, any punch or kick is devastating. The worst thing that will happen in this fight is CroCop landing a straight left or a high kick and Gonzaga eating it. He will believe he can take the strikes and remain standing, losing the fight. Fighting on as close to home turf as possible for CroCop, I expect him to step up and win this fight via unanimous decision.

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What's wrong with judging in MMA?
UFC 185: Pettis vs DosAnjos 

What's Wrong with Judging in MMA?

At UFC Fight Night:Fairfax the ugly head of bad judging surfaced again. Depending on who you ask Liz Carmouche lost her match and Al Iaquinta was demolished by Jorge Masvidal. Fans want the system fixed. What they really want is for whomever they felt won to win.My opinion in those two bouts was that Carmouche lost and Jorge Masvidal handily beat Iaquinta. But are the judges to blame or is the parameters of the sport? What can realistically be done to fix the bad decisions? Or is bad judging just something athletes and fans must accept?

The sport of MMA needs to accept some blame for the bad decisions it produces. Judging combat sports is difficult. Extremely. Boxing has had countless bad decisions in it's history and in boxing all you have to look for is whether one guy punches the other. In MMA a judge has to look for striking, grappling, cage control, aggressiveness, ground control, top control, submissions, damage, and probably a dozen more things. And how do you judge all that? What carries the most weight? A takedown or a three strike combo? What if a guy gets two takedowns but is hurt by strikes later in the round, what carries more weight? None of that has been defined in MMA. Or what if nothing happens in a round, who wins the round? The one with center control or the one who's footwork forced the other to have "center" control? Judging is essentially opinion. What do you think happened? So when a round is not clear cut it leaves the judge with all the power to choose what he prefers, including the fighter. Why can Floyd Mayweather use his superior footwork and speed to avoid damage and conflict and win every round while a lesser fighter loses the same type of round because he was inactive? Because everyone loves Mayweather and really, it takes boxing skill to avoid the way he does in the ring. The Masvidal/Iaquinta match is a perfect example of perception. Iaquinta is a fan favorite. He takes the fight to his opponent. Almost a brawler. Masvidal is extremely skilled on his feet. He, in my opinion was picking Iaquinta apart. But viewers felt that Masvidal was coasting and running because Iaquinta kept chasing and throwing bombs that mainly missed. I saw one fighter head and shoulders above the other in the striking department. But what many fans and the judges saw was a lot of effort from Iaquinta and another fighter not engaging. That was the perception. I can see that. Even with me giving the fight to Masvidal in the back of my mind I was thinking they may thinking Iaquinta is the aggressor. And to me, that's the worst of judging or commentating. "Well he was the aggressor" or "He was busier, threw more strikes" That means hey you should win for trying. Now, after the fight stats showed that Masvidal actually was more active and accurate during the rounds 2 & 3 that he "coasted" what other reason do we have to award the rounds to Iaquinta? I personally dislike the use of statistics to prove a fighter won because judges don't have that available. A fight should be judged on what we see, not on generated numbers. But I use them here merely to point out how opinion and perception play a major role in today's MMA judging.

UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Iaquinta vs. Masvidal

What Al Iaquinta(-130)and Jorge Masvidal (+100)lack in name recognition they will certainly make up for inside the Octagon with their high output thrilling styles. Both are on a three fight winning streaks and on the verge of demanding a top ten opponent with a victory.

Masvidal is the bettor's favorite and on paper he should be. He s more experienced, competed against better talent, and possess beautiful standup. He has held his own against the likes of Gilbert Melendez (lost), K.J. Noons (won) and Paul Daley (lost). Anyone who can go three rounds against Paul Daley with his head still attached to his torso deserves a hand. Masvidal's striking is varied and fluid. His hands are his best weapon but he can unload nice low and high kicks. He is difficult to take down but he probably doesn't have to worry about that against Iaquinta.

For years I have bet against Serra-Longo Fight Team. I was one of the one's who felt Chris Weidman was lucky against Anderson Silva. Then he did it again. Then he beat Lyoto Machida. What came through most in Weidman's performances was that his coaches, Matt Serra and Ray Longo, not only prepared their fighters but also devised pinpoint and top level game plans. Al Iaquinta has been a great beneficiary of his coaches' wealth of knowledge. He is gifted with cannon in his fists and an iron jaw. He has shown discipline in his fights following his corner's directions almost exactly. For that he has three straight TKO victories to show. It seems that things are falling into place for Iaquinta. He TKO'd Joe Lauzon in his last outing, one of the toughest and most durable fighters in MMA. He faced some adversity in that fight but he stuck to the gameplan and found the victory. There is nothing else excellent in the arsenal of Iaquinta, but if you could hit as hard as he does, you wouldn't need anything else either.

Masvidal tends to be hit early in his fights. Not a good thing against Iaquinta. Vegas has this one as essentially a pick 'em. With good reason. We have two young, rising talents with almost equal skill sets. But Masvidal has been knocked out in his career. His chin is not weak but Iaquinta has shown to make many a chins weak after he lands. After rocking Masvidal early in round, Iaquinta will finish the fight early in round two with strikes to the head. 

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UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Mendes vs. Lamas

UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Mendes vs. Lamas

If Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor had chosen some other sport, we would all be talking about the championship bout this weekend between Chad Mendes (-425)and Ricardo Lamas (+320). But Aldo and McGregor didn't and they are currently and probably the best media tour the UFC has ever seen completely erasing the rest of the featherweight division from the minds of fans. Nonetheless fans will be treated to a pay-per-view worthy main event this Saturday April 4th.

In Chad Mendes we have probably the best wrestler in the lighter weight classes not named Frankie Edgar. Strong, quick with tremendous doubles. At the beginning of his career he set up the takedown with nice punches and combinations. Now, like so many, he's realized he has bricks in his hands and just knocks his opponent out skipping the takedowns. And who could blame him given his recent KO ratio. He has a chin along with movement and setups that allow him to stand with little danger, unless his opponent is Jose Aldo. After his last performance against the champ, Mendes gained more fans, more respect and more grit than in any other fight or victory of his career. He also showed that to beat him you're gonna have to go through Hell to do it.

In Ricardo Lamas we have some similarities. Good wrestler, but not elite. Good striker but not one punch KO power or exceptional footwork. Good chin but Lamas has been KO'd twice. Worse of all, when Lamas faced Jose Aldo, I felt he did not give his best performance. Lamas preferred to say he went five rounds with the champ than to go all out and let the chips fall where they may a la Chad Mendes. But who can blame him? I'd love to say I went five hard rounds with Jose Aldo and lived. Regardless, Lamas' best chance at victory is in getting Chad Mendes on his back and delivering his vicious elbows and strikes.

I see Ricardo Lamas having a very difficult time with Chad Mendes and going into cruise mode to survive, which he may not. Chad Mendes has confidence for ages and his loss to Jose Aldo did nothing to deter that, may have even increased. He took everything Aldo had and struck right back. Turned the tide even. Lamas will stay in the fight, but unless a fire has been lit in him, once he realizes he's facing a much better fighter he will crawl into the same shell he did against Jose Aldo. I take Chad Mendes by grinding decision.

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UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Masvidal vs. Iaquinta

UFC 185 : Hendricks vs Brown

UFC Welterweight Match Up

Johnny Hendricks (-320) vs. Matt Brown (+260)

After a few relatively easy fights. Johnny Hendricks has been involved in three straight 5 round wars, two of which he lost. Depending on which end of the cage you were sitting at, one could easily argue he won those two. They were that close. He lost the UFC Welterweight title without a single defense. But Hendricks remains in the elite tier of the world's welterweights. Hendricks is a top-level wrestler. Not just pure wrestler, but MMA wrestler. His single and double set ups from striking are devastating. He is superb at maintaining top-control and punishing his opponent, albeit his ground and pound is not vicious a la Tito Ortiz. Hendricks wrestling is at a level where he could conceivably win every fight via decision. But he made his name with highlight KO's of Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann from with power from a left hand that forgives no one. Hendricks has good boxing with a decent tie ups and clinch work. He tends to overpower his opponent and use wrestling hand and arm control to win the clinch. He unveiled good kicks in his last few fights, but a kickboxer he is not.

In Matt Brown he faces an iron willed warrior. Brown is not excellent at any one thing, except moving forward and pushing his opponent. He posses above average power but not lights power like Hendricks. He prefers stand up and can stuff some takedowns. His kickboxing is good albeit limited. His strength again, is his will and tenacity. He will take punishment and not let up. He will push his opponent's heart. His fight with Erick Silva is the perfect example. Silva albeit a talented young fighter had no answer for a man willing to die in the cage. Brown also lost a decision to Robbie Lawler because he faced a much better and skilled striker. Lawler chose when to engage and how. Brown needs a dog fight, his opponent to abandon a gameplan and slug. He has been successful in baiting oppnents into his game, but has almost no answers when they don't.

Johnny Hendricks has all the tools to win and control any fight. But he has fallen in love with knocking people out. I will never believe that someone who learns to strike in his later years can become a better striker than a lifelong pugilist. They may know the technique and be able to copy it, but it will not compare to that of a pure striker. Just like someone like Alistair Overeem will never become an elite wrestler. His love for striking is the only way for Hendricks to lose this fight. If he allows himself to be baited into a fire fight with Matt Brown there is a high likely hood he could go to sleep. Matt Brown can take a punch, he has to, his defense is full of holes. But he can also dish it out in the midst of his opponent's onslaught. If Hendricks decides he can stand and bang with Brown instead of utilizing his wrestling, Brown has the tools to turn the tide. Hendricks has shown in previous fights to have a tank that runs low from time to time. His wrestling has allowed him to surpass those moments and he needs to keep that in mind during this fight. He can't let rounds slip as this is only a three round fight. Hendricks has shown increased cage IQ, so unless he abandons all he's learned I expect him to win a grueling three round decision. Matt Brown has yet to KO'd in his career, I don't expect Hendricks to change that.

UFC 185: Pettis Vs. Dos Anjos

UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Pettis (-430) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+435)

Interesting match-up in the main event. Since his uneventful defeat at the lay and pray of Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis has looked every bit of the dynamic athlete he promised to be in his WEC days. After proving he could wrestle against Jeremy Stephens, Pettis has finished his last four opponents including former UFC/WEC champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, both had never been finished at that point. He has done it not only with athleticism but a very high skill level as well as cage IQ. He strikes unexpectedly and does not lose an opening. Against Melendez, some may argue Pettis lost the first round. Melendez rushed and pressured him against the cage and controlled the round, not giving Pettis the space he loves to perform. In round two, Melendez left an opening, was rocked by a strike and quickly finished in a classic guillotine choke. Small mistakes and failure to impose their game plan will cost any Pettis opponent dearly.

In Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis finds an opponent almost as gifted and probably larger and stronger. Dos Anjos is riding his own 3 fight win streak finishing 2 of those including the first ever knockout of Ben Henderson. He is an exceptional Thai kickboxer with vicious and accurate kicks. Beating Donald Cerrone goes a long way towards opening people's eyes to your stand up skills. Yet in 30 professional bouts he has only registered 8 KO's. He does have 11 submissions on his resume but hasn't submitted an opponent since 2012. He does have the physical attributes to hang with Pettis but for how long? Dos Anjos has shown the ability to employ a game plan, follow it to a decision victory. But Pettis is not run of the mill opponent.

One of the rarely discussed aspects of the fight game is footwork. But I emphasize it tremendously. A few MMA fighters possess next level footwork. Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva. Anthony Pettis is nearing that level. If a fighter can control where the fight takes place he controls the outcome. That's where Pettis has the largest advantage. Dos Anjos is a solid wrestler and BJJ practioner but Pettis learned plenty in his loss to Clay Guida. since that loss, his takedown defense has been exceptional. Assuming Pettis can stuff the takedown, his fluid mobility on the feet will confound dos Anjos and keep him guessing. While dos Anjos is solid in the kicking game, Pettis is creative and deadly. He strikes from anywhere, anytime with accuracy and power. While his opponent is trying to time a leg kick Pettis is busy doing Crescent kicks or wheel kicks or some new invention we've never seen. He is a showman with victory on his mind. While dos Anjos is not merely another opponent, he will face the same fate as the previous contenders. I look for 2nd round finish via ref stoppage by strikes. Pettis will catch dos Anjos in a scramble and finish him brilliantly.

UFC 141 Lesnar vs. Overeem will be like watching two Brahma bulls battle

Few things in combat sports can capture an audience like two giants battling inside the Octagon. At UFC 141 MMA fans will be treated to such a matchup between former champion Brock Lesnar and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem. On fight night the two will combine for probably over 575 pounds inside the Octagon. While few men in this world can make Brock Lesnar seem small, standing side by side, Alistair Overrem achieves just that. But will that translate into victory?

Alistair "Demolition Man" Overeem is riding a wave of success and hype, having not lost since 2007 covering an 11 fight unbeaten streak. While he is relatively unknown to UFC fans, just one look at his massive physique lets them know he is not a fighter to be taken lightly. Brock Lesnar, on the other hand, comes in on the heels of a rough loss against former heavyweight king, Cain Velasquez, in which his massive holes in his stand up were soundly exposed. Yet he remains a top tier force in the heavyweight division and more importantly in the UFC's marketing plan. So Dana White's best idea for Lesnar's return to the Octagon is to pit him against one of the world's elite strikers, MMA or otherwise. At stake for Brock Lesnar is not only a title shot but more importantly his ability to prove he can bang and remain with the elite in the UFC.

Through his rise in the heavyweight ranks, I have not been a believer in Alistair Overeem. In his 11 fight streak the best fighter he beat was Fabricio Werdum whom he defeated by decision mainly because Fabricio was unable to bring Overeem to the mat. Werdum is a ground specialist but not a takedown artist. All other  fighters during the streak were either over the hill or unproven and in way over their heads. The Alistair Overeem I recall is the one that went 2-5 immediately before the streak began and being KOd or TKOd by the likes of Kharitonov, Rua, Arona and Nogueira. I remember the one that gasses in fights and has difficulty with adversity. The one who can not stop a takedown. He has not fought a single wrestler during his winning streak.

On paper, most see Brock Lesnar at a disadvantage. He himself has not reacted well to being hit in the face and now he faces one of the purest strikers in MMA? I agree with Lesnar's recent comments that he can take a punch, there are no problems with his chin. He just doesn't like being hit in the face and doesn't react like a we expect him to. While Overeem will surely land punches, Lesnar will surely get a clinch or a single or double and take the fight to the ground and erase the striking advantage. He did so against Frank Mir and Randy Couture and even Cain Velasquez. But Velasquez was able to get back to his feet and re-establish his striking advantage. I don't see Alistair Overeem doing that. There is something daunting in having a 285lb monster on top of you who moves like a welterweight and that  is definitely something the Demolition Man has never faced before. Even if Overeem escapes to the later rounds, Lesnar's cardio has never been questioned especially when he dominates. Unless he is able to land a fight ending strike, I see Alistair Overeem slowly folding under the force that is Brock Lesnar en route to a third round TKO victory for Brock and a return trip to a title tilt against Junior dos Santos.

At UFC 140, Jon Jones Shows Growth, Frank Mir Submits a Legend

Few were surprised by the outcome of Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida. Although Machida going to sleep and thrown down like a rag doll was probably not a popular prediction I didn't see many predicting Machida to pull any sort of upset. The fight also proved more entertaining than most thought. Lyoto Machida came out disciplined with an exceptional game plan of constant movement and darting strikes which for the first round confused the young champ Jones. But Jones' skill and physical attributes are just too much for most light heavyweights. What we did see was Jones face some adversity and rise above. On my scorecard, Machida won the first round managing to actually land solid strikes on Jones. Between rounds, Jon Jones seemed confused and a bit worried but like any true competitor came out in round two and turned the tide. What future opponent's need to learn from this bout is that it is possible to win a distance fight against the long Jon Jones, but you better be ready for a clinch and takedown sometime during the fight. Machida was not. By no means is this the "blueprint" to defeat Jones but it is worth it to apply some of these tactics in future game planning. Who can repeat these tactics in the division? The only name that comes to mind is Shogun but we've all seen how that ended. Dan Henderson? He has the ability to rush Jones once, maybe twice but lacks the fluid movement Lyoto Machida displayed. Henderson would have to utilize a rush and clinch tactic and still seems a Jon Jones strong suit. Rashad Evans? Doubtful. He would definitely try to out-wrestle Jones and that would we be a mistake. Phil Davis? Way too inexperienced and one dimensional still. Lil' Nog? Same. Anderson Silva?

He certainly has the skill, movement and fluidity to attack in similar fashion but can he stop a Jon Jones take down? I'd love to see him try. As for Machida, he looked great for one round and showed he still belongs in the UFC but it will be a while before he receives another title shot. I'd like to see him in there against a rising Stephan Bonnar or Stanislav Nedkov so we can see what Nedkov is made of.

Much of the talk of UFC 140 is about the damage caused by Frank Mir on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's arm. Nogueira is and always be a legend in the sport of MMA. His accomplishments are on another level of his peers. With that said he faced a Frank Mir that to the surprise of everyone was one step ahead on the ground at UFC 140. The focus and seamless grappling displayed by Mir was a thing of beauty even if the outcome made some squirm. I'm not sure who, if anyone, expected Rodrigo Nogueira to tap. Frank Mir has been criticized for his perceived lack of remorse at  Nogueira's injuries and I feel unjustly. He did his job and Nogueira did his and the result was maybe a career ending injury for Minotauro. Does this place as next in line for a title shot? Because of lack of talent pool, yes. In reality he still displayed some of his drawbacks. Willingness to stay on the feet against superior strikers and more importantly, getting stunned quickly. Can he withstand Junior Dos Santos' hands? No. Would another rematch with Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin end differently if they caught him again. No. He still an extremely talented and marketable fighter who belongs at the very top of the UFC mountain, he just can't knock the guys at the top of that mountain off. To see if he's really changed and improved, I'd like to see him face Cain Velasquez relentless pace and quick hands. Frank Mir is certainly no gatekeeper but has had small success against the very top tier UFC heavyweights.

As for Nogueira, his future is unclear. He certainly faces a very long rehabilitation at minimum and retirement at worst. He has nothing to be ashamed of in this fight or his career if it ends. Everyone gets caught. If he returns I would like to see him face middle tier talent like Pat Barry or Mike Russow to see where he is at without risking much.

UFC 140 Machida vs. Jones Will Either be Fireworks or Put Us to Sleep

Jon "Bones" Jones has seemed unstoppable in his young career. He does things in the Octagon that not only defy belief and require his athletic ability but also show Octagon intellect and imagination. From jumping over Ryan Bader to take his back to his patented spinning back fist, Jon Jones shows all the ability imaginable and he's only 24. He has yet to really even break a sweat in the Octagon. On Saturday December 10, he faces Lyoto "the Dragon" Machida who not so long ago was touted as the second coming himself. When he knocked out Rashad Evans to win the belt we were told we had entered the Machida era. Well, that era lasted one lackluster title defense and one brutal KO loss, both to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. He followed that up with another loss to Quinton Jackson before a highlight reel knockout of Randy Couture. Not that he is undeserving, but Machida is getting the title shot because Rashad Evans seemed to sprout injuries when scheduled to fight Jon Jones and no one else has built enough steam to justify a title shot. Regardless, this is an interesting fight to a point.

We have two fighters who fight on timing and distance. the Jon Jones puzzle has yet to be solved while the Machida myth was smashed by Shogun. Machida loves to dash in and out and counter his opponent. He controls the Octagon like few others and is probably the most difficult to land a solid strike against. Aside from his fights with Shogun, who showed extreme patience and discipline, the Machida style is still not an easily solved puzzle. The problem is that Jon Jones style is similar in that he uses his length to dictate how and where the fight will take place. He shows something something new and innovative each time out. He used kicks to the thigh as a jab against Rampage Jackson to keep him at the necessary distance. He is almost impossible to take down and how will Machida keep him down if he gets him on the ground? The largest obstacle Jones' opponents face is not just Jon Jones' size and reach but that he knows how to use it. Many fighters have enjoyed such freakish advanteages over opponents. Tim Sylvia, Corey Hill, Semmy Schilt, to name a few. None of them can use their attribute to the advantage Jon Jones does. So how can Machida defeat Jon Jones? On paper, there are not many ways for Lyoto Machida to succeed. But as they say, that's why they play the game. Jon jones' chin has yet to be tested. Fans have yet to see him overcome adversity. Machida has a style and physical attributes to give Jones trouble and 6 oz gloves are the great equalizer.

Unfortunately for Machida, Jon Jones has a high Octagon IQ and comes from Greg Jackson's camp. Jon Jones will be prepared. I expect Jones to take Machida down early and beat him up there like he has many other opponents. Machida has not spent much time on his back and I don't see him just standing up against Jones. Expect the elbows to rain on Machida before his father mercifully throws in the towel for a second or third round stoppage.

My fear is that with both fighters playing the distance game, neither will exchange until the time is right and we'll have ourselves another Severn/Shamrock. With Jackson camp's tendency to play it safe this is a possibility, but not likely. Jon Jones has become more vocal and confident of late and he better come in ready to back all that up because one straight left from Machida can bring his ego down real quick.

UFC 139 Features 6 Ex-champions Highlighted by Dan Henderson Slugging Against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

At UFC 139 MMA fan's get a fight many hoped had occurred five or six years ago. Dan Henderson against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. There was a time in the days of Pride that this match-up would have been the talk of the entire MMA world. Even now fans are still getting two of the best they've ever seen clash while still competing at relatively high levels. Both have been knocked down a bit but anyone who counts either of these men is making a huge mistake.

Dan Henderson brings with him one of the best resumes in MMA. He has fought a who's who of opponents and vanquished most. Of his eight losses, three were submissions to Anderson Silva and one to each of the Nogueira brothers. The rest are decisions and he has never been knocked out. The put to sleep the incomparable Fedor Emelianenko in under one round. He has also knocked out Wanderlai Silva, Bisping, Cavalcante, Sobral, Bustamante and Renzo Gracie. More importantly, Dan Henderson brings with him what has now become the blueprint for success in MMA. He is really, really good at one thing and can carry his own at everything else. The one thing he is really good at is wrestling and clinch work and has the ability to control how and where the match will take place. It doesn't hurt that he probably has the hardest right hand in the business and can turn out the lights with one shot and has a chin that has taken shots from the best and come out grinning. Dan Henderson, even at 41, is not easy fight for anyone.

On the other side of the Octagon is the one time 'wunderkind' of Pride, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Until his shocking loss to Forrest Griffin upon his arrival in the UFC, Shogun was thought of as the future of MMA, the Jon Jones of his time.He held KO victories over current heavyweight phenom Alistair Overeem, Quentin Jackson, and Ricardo Arona. But Shogun is only 4-3 in his UFC tenure although three of those matches were for the championship belt of which he only won once. There is no shame in losing to Jon Jones at the moment. No one has solved that puzzle yet. But since his knee surgeries, Mauricio Rua has not been the same young fighter we first saw in Pride. That does not mean he does not have the skill set to defeat Dan Henderson. He still very dynamic on the fit, with an array of strikes and kicks that few can match. Shogun is very heavy handed and with an iron chin equal to or greater than Henderson's. The beating he took at the hands of Jon Jones without ever losing consciousness is a testament to that. The knock on Mauricio since his UFC debut has been lack of stamina. He fades in fights. I disagree to a point. Has he faded in fights? Absolutley. But I find it difficult to believe that an athlete of his caliber with his training regimen lacks stamina. In the Jon Jones fight, few take into account the damage the body strikes Jones landed early that fight caused. He certainly did not fade in his first bout against Lyoto Machida. In that fight he was very controlled and paced, strikingly different from his natural style. Which is why I feel he tires in fights. He starts bout at a frenetic pace with an array of high level kicks, not your basic low kicks. I don't feel he trains to maintain that pace and wears himself out quickly.

Taking all this into account, I feel Dan Henderson can take a split decision victory over Mauricio Rua. There'll be fireworks early on, with maybe Dan Henderson taking a stumble. But he will fall back on his Greco-Roman base and control the match en route to a tight decision victory.

The rest of the card:

Brian Bowles finishes Urijah Faber

Wanderlai Silva posterizes Cung Le

Martin Kampmann decisions Rick Story

Kyle Kingsbury wears down Stephan Bonnar

Ryan Bader earns a split decision against Jason Brilz

Chris Weidman finishes Tom Lawlor

Miguel Torres KOs Nick Pace

Rafael dos Anjos outgrapples Gleison Tibau

Dos Santos puts the Champ Velazquez to Sleep and Ben "Smooth" Henderson Outhustles Clay Guida

Much has been made of Cain Velazquez' decision to stand against Junior dos Santos. He should have gone for the takedown, pushed him against the fence, dirty boxed, etc. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I don't know what the strategy was for Cain Velazquez. He has stated he did not follow the gameplan. Dana White was livid after the fight, stating that dos Santos tires late in fights. No one knows what would have happened if Junior dos Santos had not landed so early in the fight. What we do know is this : 1)dos Santos has and will have the heaviest, most talented hands in the Heavyweight division and anyone is a fool to intentionally stand against him. 2)Many fans, analysts and especially Cain himself had been enamored with his progress in stand up especially with the results against Brock Lesnar. But to believe that your stand up after a few years (or months) of training can be as good as someone's who has trained his entire life is ridiculous. If CroCop trained the rest of his life in wrestling, he could never out-wrestle someone like Velazquez or Lesnar. He may get the upper hand briefly, but ultimately he will lose a wrestling battle. It is very similar to Gray Maynard's success against Frankie Edgar. Gray hurt him badly twice, but in the end superior stand up, footwork and all-around MMA won the fight for Frankie Edgar. So while he is criticized by choosing to stand, let's remember all the praise he received for his 'beautiful' combinations and progress in his fights against Big Nog and Lesnar. 3)Regardless if Cain had chosen to go for a take down or the clinch, every round would start on the feet and dos Santos has shown against other grapplers to have the ability to stay on his feet or get to his feet quickly. I was wrong in my prediction that Cain Velazquez would have been able to ground and wear out Junior dos Santos. Does that make Cain a chump and Junior dos Santos unbeatable? Absolutely not. Everyone has holes, not everyone allows those to be exposed. Cain had been rocked before, does he have a glass chin? We'll find out in his next outing against a striker. Can Junior dos Santos keep every fight standing long enough to wear out or KO his opponent? So far the answer is a resounding yes. Whether it's Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem to get the next crack at the champ, both will need to sharpen every aspect of their game to stand a chance against 'Cigano.'

The biggest and best surprise of the historic night was "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Not only did he dominate Clay Guida, he made the fight exciting and went to win every minute of the fight. For anyone who believes the WEC lightweights did not belong in the UFC, take a look at Henderson's fights. He is exciting, athletic, inventive, dynamic and most of all lays it on the line every time. His scheduled match against Frankie Edgar has fight of the decade written all over it. For the first time in a while the champ will face someone with the same mobility, skill set and cardio as he does. He will not have an easy upper hand in the later rounds as he has become accustomed. We are all in for a special night when Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson meet in the Octagon.

My Recent UFC Picks Record

For anyone keeping track, over the last 2 UFC's my record is 11-3 while correctly picking both main events. Not too bad I guess. We'll see how I do on this next one.

Ben Henderson and Clay Guida battle for Next Shot at Frankie Edgar

Eventhough FOX only sees fit to put the Heavyweight title fight on TV for free, a fight that promises to be a candidate for Fight of the Year is Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida. Both fighters are high octane, non-stop style that are willing to take calculated chances if they feel the outcome may win the fight. Ben Henderson has been steady throughout his career, suffering a loss early in his career than losing a tight decision to Anthony Pettis when "Showtime" landed a highlight kick to end all highlights that would have floored most men but Ben Henderson kept plugging along. Clay "the Carpenter" Guida is on a nice little run since suffering two straight losses back in 2009.

Guida has fought a who's who of the UFC's lightweight division and has held his own. Early on, Clay's all out style hurt him in the sense that it seemed he had no game plan as to how to win. His only focus was to not get hurt and hurt the other guy. But since joining Greg Jackson's camp, Clay Guida goes into matches with an idea of how to win a match against that particular opponent. Then he augments it with his kill or be killed style and goes in for the kill when the timing is right. Hence 3 finishes in his last 4 fights. But in his fight against Anthony Pettis, he reverted back to ground and hold style that won him a razor thin split decision victory that I disagreed with.
Unfortunately for Ben Henderson, Guida's style may be his Achilles heel. Ben Henderson, for all his skill and resilience, has a tendency to place himself in bad situations that he somehow works his way out of. Clay Guida is the wrong guy to end up in a bad position against. He can and is very willing to keep you in said position. Very few have the ground and pound and wrestling pedigree that Guida does in any weight division. He grounded Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis, two fighters well known for standing at will when taken down. While Ben Henderson may have shown he can escape peril thus far, if he does escape from Clay Guida's ground and pound, it will zap a lot of his will and energy. Then "The Carpenter" will utilize his elite cardio and insane pace on his way to a unanimous decision victory. Will it matter to Frankie Edgar who wins? Probably not. Frankie Edgar will face anybody, anytime.


The rest of the card :
Pablo Garza finishes Dustin Poirier
Ricardo Lamas outlasts Cub Swanson
Clay Harvison slips by Damarques Johnson
Darren Uyenoyama upsets Kid Yamamoto
Robert Peralta finishes Mackens Semerzier
Aaron Rosa KOs Matt Lucas

Can Cain Velazquez overcome Junior Dos Santos on the UFCs biggest night?

On November 12th Cain Velazquez puts his heavyweight belt on the line for the first time against Junior Dos Santos live and free on FOX. While most of the talk surrounds this being the UFCs first opportunity on broadcast television and what effect that will have on the company's bottom line, MMA fans are more interested in who will triumph in MMA's biggest heavyweight match-up since Fedor-CroCop.

Cain Velazquez has been almost unstoppable in his short 9 fight career. Tho only man to go the distance against him is the steady Cheick Kongo. Kongo is also the only man to show even a glimpse of weakness in Cain, rocking him early in that fight. But like all great gladiators, Velazquez rose to the challenge and controlled the rest of the fight. He has not been challenged by anyone else in his career. Even in his fight against Brock Lesnar, Cain showed excellent wrestling, octagon control and   veteran resilience to quickly turn the tide against the behemoth and earn a TKO heavyweight title victory. My hesitation in jumping on the brown pride bandwagon is purely aesthetic. I just wish he had been challenged more in his career. As a fan, I like to see what a fighter's made of when things are not going his way. Much like Georges St. Pierre folded (and will again the next time) when Matt Serra rocked him. but when you're as gifted and skilled as Cain Velazquez is, those rocky moments are and far between. Having a wrestling base is his biggest asset. He can control where the fight takes place. He quickly stood after a take down against Lesnar and took him down also. the one negative in his game is that he is not a natural striker and because of his success on the feet, he may believe he can bang against Junior dos Santos. Yes he knocked out Minotauro and TKO'd Brock Lesnar but Junior dos Santos will be the most complete stand-up fighter Cain has faced. Probably the best in the heavyweight division.
Junior dos Santos conversely has faced slightly higher pedigree fighters but also has yet to truly be tested. his last two fights have gone the distance but the outcome was never in doubt. In the UFC he has yet to be rocked or even in jeopardy of a submission. He has KO'd or submitted 5 of his 7 UFC opponents including the likes of Gonzaga, Werdun, Yvel and CroCop. He dismantled Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He has excellent take down defense, superior ground skills, excellent footwork, top notch cardio and the best hands in the heavyweight division. Of course, Cain Velazquez' take downs are superior to those of Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin so his take down defense will be tested. The question is, how can he beat Cain? His best shot is on the feet. Junior has shown exceptional ability to keep a fight standing via volume or superior footwork. But Cain has show similar ability. We have yet to see dos Santos on his back for a prolonged period of time and my money is on Cain Velazquez achieving that. Will Junior dos Santos wilt or rise? I feel Junior dos Santos will rise to the challenge but not enough for a victory. 
Cain Velazquez will hold his own on the feet then take the fight to the ground when the timing is right to win the early rounds. As the fight wears on Cain will use his endless cardio tank to batter and bloody Junior dos Santos with a vicious ground and pound. dos santos will fight back valiantly and show that he is worthy of a rematch but not enough to wrest the championship gold from Cain Velazquez.

Leben and Munoz Clash in Historic 5 Round Tussle

Chris Leben and Mark Munoz face off in the main event of UFC 138 on tape delay on SpikeTV from England. Aside from pitting two evenly matched middleweights, this match is historic because it will be the first non-title five round MMA bout. Will it go the five rounds? Probably not. Mark Munoz is as good a wrestler in MMA and training with Chael Sonnen doesn't hurt either. He has the ability to take down Leben repeatedly and keep him there. If Maia couldn't submit Munoz, I doubt Chris Leben can pull off the submission. Mark Munoz learned alot after Matt Hamill head kicked him into unconsciousness. Don't strike with a striker, secure the win first. He's gone 6-1 since, his only loss coming via decision against another superb wrestler, Yushin Okami. What Chris Leben brings is a never say die attitude and the ability to entice almost anyone into brawl they can not win. Anytime you think he's out, when you think he's hurt, that's when he as at his most dangerous. His achilles is lack of defense and limited skills. Michael Bisping was able to dance around the Octagon and avoid solid strikes and Leben is susceptible to takedowns and ground and pound. In his favor is that every round starts on the feet. If he can entice Mark Munoz into a stand up battle or get Munoz to wear himself out as he did against Akiyama, he has a chance. While Chris Leben's cardio has never been up to par, he has shown to have more heart when both combatants are low on fuel. No matter, I see Mark Munoz pulling out a bloody, tough decision victory against a gutsy Leben.

The only other fight on the card that excites me is Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi. I was never one sold on Alves. I never really understood his builup to welterweight title contender. Yes, he showed exciting stand up skills but also many holes on the feet and more on the ground. He tends to get sloppy on the feet with  looping punches and little footwork. He has also been outclassed and submitted on the ground by anyone with any semblance of ground skills. And he has trouble making weight. his biggest victory, a TKO of Matt Hughes came after he grossly missed weight and probably showed up on fight night at least 10 pounds heavier than Hughes. Nonetheless, the firepower in his hands makes him a very dangerous foe for anyone. Papy Abedi shows up with a perfect 8-0 record filled with KO and submission victories. But has fought mainly C level competition. Will he fold under the bright lights pressure of a UFC debut? He is fighting on his side of the pond and will probably have friends and family in the audience cheering him on. If his standup is half as good as it is advertised, he may have what it takes to wear down Alves. But I doubt it. Thiago Alves can be outclassed and decisioned but by top level grapplers, not mid-level strikers. Alves has rarely been in trouble on the feet, most, as champion St. Pierre did, rather ground him and take their chances there. Choosing to stand against "The Pitbull" will be Papy's undoing. Expect an early second round highlight KO from Alves.

The rest of the card :

Renan "Barao" submits Brad Pickett

Terry Etim crushes Eddie Faalolotto

Cyrille Diabate earns a tough decision against Anthony Perosh

Jason Young hands Omigawa his walking papers