At UFC 139 MMA fan's get a fight many hoped had occurred five or six years ago. Dan Henderson against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. There was a time in the days of Pride that this match-up would have been the talk of the entire MMA world. Even now fans are still getting two of the best they've ever seen clash while still competing at relatively high levels. Both have been knocked down a bit but anyone who counts either of these men is making a huge mistake.
Dan Henderson brings with him one of the best resumes in MMA. He has fought a who's who of opponents and vanquished most. Of his eight losses, three were submissions to Anderson Silva and one to each of the Nogueira brothers. The rest are decisions and he has never been knocked out. The put to sleep the incomparable Fedor Emelianenko in under one round. He has also knocked out Wanderlai Silva, Bisping, Cavalcante, Sobral, Bustamante and Renzo Gracie. More importantly, Dan Henderson brings with him what has now become the blueprint for success in MMA. He is really, really good at one thing and can carry his own at everything else. The one thing he is really good at is wrestling and clinch work and has the ability to control how and where the match will take place. It doesn't hurt that he probably has the hardest right hand in the business and can turn out the lights with one shot and has a chin that has taken shots from the best and come out grinning. Dan Henderson, even at 41, is not easy fight for anyone.
On the other side of the Octagon is the one time 'wunderkind' of Pride, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Until his shocking loss to Forrest Griffin upon his arrival in the UFC, Shogun was thought of as the future of MMA, the Jon Jones of his time.He held KO victories over current heavyweight phenom Alistair Overeem, Quentin Jackson, and Ricardo Arona. But Shogun is only 4-3 in his UFC tenure although three of those matches were for the championship belt of which he only won once. There is no shame in losing to Jon Jones at the moment. No one has solved that puzzle yet. But since his knee surgeries, Mauricio Rua has not been the same young fighter we first saw in Pride. That does not mean he does not have the skill set to defeat Dan Henderson. He still very dynamic on the fit, with an array of strikes and kicks that few can match. Shogun is very heavy handed and with an iron chin equal to or greater than Henderson's. The beating he took at the hands of Jon Jones without ever losing consciousness is a testament to that. The knock on Mauricio since his UFC debut has been lack of stamina. He fades in fights. I disagree to a point. Has he faded in fights? Absolutley. But I find it difficult to believe that an athlete of his caliber with his training regimen lacks stamina. In the Jon Jones fight, few take into account the damage the body strikes Jones landed early that fight caused. He certainly did not fade in his first bout against Lyoto Machida. In that fight he was very controlled and paced, strikingly different from his natural style. Which is why I feel he tires in fights. He starts bout at a frenetic pace with an array of high level kicks, not your basic low kicks. I don't feel he trains to maintain that pace and wears himself out quickly.
Taking all this into account, I feel Dan Henderson can take a split decision victory over Mauricio Rua. There'll be fireworks early on, with maybe Dan Henderson taking a stumble. But he will fall back on his Greco-Roman base and control the match en route to a tight decision victory.
The rest of the card:
Brian Bowles finishes Urijah Faber
Wanderlai Silva posterizes Cung Le
Martin Kampmann decisions Rick Story
Kyle Kingsbury wears down Stephan Bonnar
Ryan Bader earns a split decision against Jason Brilz
Chris Weidman finishes Tom Lawlor
Miguel Torres KOs Nick Pace
Rafael dos Anjos outgrapples Gleison Tibau
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