UFC ON FOX : Rockhold vs. Machida

UFC on FOX was put together on the premise that the victors would provide either a clear cut #1 contender for the UFC Middleweight belt or at least which two contenders would fight to deduce the #1 contender. With Yoel Romero dropping out due to injury, Ronaldo Souza will have to deliver a highlight performance to stay in the running for that spot because Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is as fan friendly and PPV worthy as any matchup the UFC has put on.

At middleweight, Lyoto Machida (+125) is 3 - 1 with his only loss a very hard fought decision one against unbeaten champ Chris Weidman. With the exception of his quick KO loss in his rematch against Shogun Rua, it's difficult to say Machida has ever looked bad against anyone. Machida presents a difficult puzzle for anyone at anytime. He is swift, moves in and out, world class footwork and striking. There are no two Lyoto Machidas. One can not prepare for what he brings into the Octagon. The knock on Machida though has been he tends to react not act. He Waits on his opponent. If he can not entice his foe to act recklessly or engage, Lyoto at times seems to stand still. This holds true especially for high level opponents. But if he can get his opponent's distance and timing and/or he does not fear them, his results have been above par. Machida strikes from unexpected places and angles. He can put together multiple strikes and not just from his hands. He is equally adapt at knees and kicks. He has some of the best takedown defense in MMA but will use his Judo to take his foe down at his will.

In Luke Rockhold (-145) Machida will face for maybe the first time someone with almost the same skill set if not better. Just like Machida, it's impossible to find a match in which Rockhold looked bad. His loss against Vitor Belfort was short and he simply fought a legend in one of his many primes who unleashed a kick few could have avoided on that night. Aside from that moment, Rockhold has looked every bit the All American he is billed as. He has seemed a bit stiff at times but in his last few fights more fluidity has showed. He possess a powerful and aggressive stand up game. Rockhold usually strikes with discipline and fire. I have yet to see him back down from a fire fight, but he does not throw caution to the wind. More importantly, he possesses the ability to control where the fight will take place. Rockhold has finished many of his opponents via submission so going to the ground with him would not necessarily equal a win. He is very strong which has been a struggle for Machida in the past. Rockhold did defeat Jacare but that was a much different Jacare we are witnessing today. In fact, Jacare should thank Rockhold for the fighter he has become. That loss taught Jacare he needed to improve all aspects of his game, not just the ground game. In total, Rockhold's good locks are just a front for a fighter on the verge of a title shot.

Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em fight with Rockhold as a slight favorite. I tend to think that Rockhold's aggressive style is tailor made for Machida. Allowing Machida to find openings and holes. Yet, the agressive style may also make Machida clam up and become strictly defensive. The fight should remain on the feet throughout. Meaning the aggressor will probably win. Rockhold was caught once. Belfort posterized him. But he didn't come back gun shy or timid. He came back determined. Machida has fought the toughest in the UFC. This is nothing new for him. But at the top of the top, he has fallen short more often than not. I give this one to Rockhold via unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight.

The rest of my picks:

Jacare KO's Camozzi

Swanson decisons Holloway

VanZant decisions Herrig

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UFC 185: Pettis Vs. Dos Anjos

UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Pettis (-430) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+435)

Interesting match-up in the main event. Since his uneventful defeat at the lay and pray of Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis has looked every bit of the dynamic athlete he promised to be in his WEC days. After proving he could wrestle against Jeremy Stephens, Pettis has finished his last four opponents including former UFC/WEC champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, both had never been finished at that point. He has done it not only with athleticism but a very high skill level as well as cage IQ. He strikes unexpectedly and does not lose an opening. Against Melendez, some may argue Pettis lost the first round. Melendez rushed and pressured him against the cage and controlled the round, not giving Pettis the space he loves to perform. In round two, Melendez left an opening, was rocked by a strike and quickly finished in a classic guillotine choke. Small mistakes and failure to impose their game plan will cost any Pettis opponent dearly.

In Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis finds an opponent almost as gifted and probably larger and stronger. Dos Anjos is riding his own 3 fight win streak finishing 2 of those including the first ever knockout of Ben Henderson. He is an exceptional Thai kickboxer with vicious and accurate kicks. Beating Donald Cerrone goes a long way towards opening people's eyes to your stand up skills. Yet in 30 professional bouts he has only registered 8 KO's. He does have 11 submissions on his resume but hasn't submitted an opponent since 2012. He does have the physical attributes to hang with Pettis but for how long? Dos Anjos has shown the ability to employ a game plan, follow it to a decision victory. But Pettis is not run of the mill opponent.

One of the rarely discussed aspects of the fight game is footwork. But I emphasize it tremendously. A few MMA fighters possess next level footwork. Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva. Anthony Pettis is nearing that level. If a fighter can control where the fight takes place he controls the outcome. That's where Pettis has the largest advantage. Dos Anjos is a solid wrestler and BJJ practioner but Pettis learned plenty in his loss to Clay Guida. since that loss, his takedown defense has been exceptional. Assuming Pettis can stuff the takedown, his fluid mobility on the feet will confound dos Anjos and keep him guessing. While dos Anjos is solid in the kicking game, Pettis is creative and deadly. He strikes from anywhere, anytime with accuracy and power. While his opponent is trying to time a leg kick Pettis is busy doing Crescent kicks or wheel kicks or some new invention we've never seen. He is a showman with victory on his mind. While dos Anjos is not merely another opponent, he will face the same fate as the previous contenders. I look for 2nd round finish via ref stoppage by strikes. Pettis will catch dos Anjos in a scramble and finish him brilliantly.