UFC 185: Pettis Vs. Dos Anjos

UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Pettis (-430) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+435)

Interesting match-up in the main event. Since his uneventful defeat at the lay and pray of Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis has looked every bit of the dynamic athlete he promised to be in his WEC days. After proving he could wrestle against Jeremy Stephens, Pettis has finished his last four opponents including former UFC/WEC champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, both had never been finished at that point. He has done it not only with athleticism but a very high skill level as well as cage IQ. He strikes unexpectedly and does not lose an opening. Against Melendez, some may argue Pettis lost the first round. Melendez rushed and pressured him against the cage and controlled the round, not giving Pettis the space he loves to perform. In round two, Melendez left an opening, was rocked by a strike and quickly finished in a classic guillotine choke. Small mistakes and failure to impose their game plan will cost any Pettis opponent dearly.

In Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis finds an opponent almost as gifted and probably larger and stronger. Dos Anjos is riding his own 3 fight win streak finishing 2 of those including the first ever knockout of Ben Henderson. He is an exceptional Thai kickboxer with vicious and accurate kicks. Beating Donald Cerrone goes a long way towards opening people's eyes to your stand up skills. Yet in 30 professional bouts he has only registered 8 KO's. He does have 11 submissions on his resume but hasn't submitted an opponent since 2012. He does have the physical attributes to hang with Pettis but for how long? Dos Anjos has shown the ability to employ a game plan, follow it to a decision victory. But Pettis is not run of the mill opponent.

One of the rarely discussed aspects of the fight game is footwork. But I emphasize it tremendously. A few MMA fighters possess next level footwork. Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva. Anthony Pettis is nearing that level. If a fighter can control where the fight takes place he controls the outcome. That's where Pettis has the largest advantage. Dos Anjos is a solid wrestler and BJJ practioner but Pettis learned plenty in his loss to Clay Guida. since that loss, his takedown defense has been exceptional. Assuming Pettis can stuff the takedown, his fluid mobility on the feet will confound dos Anjos and keep him guessing. While dos Anjos is solid in the kicking game, Pettis is creative and deadly. He strikes from anywhere, anytime with accuracy and power. While his opponent is trying to time a leg kick Pettis is busy doing Crescent kicks or wheel kicks or some new invention we've never seen. He is a showman with victory on his mind. While dos Anjos is not merely another opponent, he will face the same fate as the previous contenders. I look for 2nd round finish via ref stoppage by strikes. Pettis will catch dos Anjos in a scramble and finish him brilliantly.

UFC 128 pits the top two light heavyweights in UFC battling for supremacy

UFC 128 Shogun vs. Jones in Newark, New Jersey will hopefully show fans where the evolution of MMA will lead. The main event pits champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua against the top prospect in the light heavyweight division, Jon “Bones” Jones. This will be Shogun's first title defense and Jones' first title fight. Odds makers have Jones as an 8 to 5 favorite over the champion and with good reason.

Few fighters have created as much buzz and fan awe as Jon Jones has. His record is 12 – 1 with his only loss coming via disqualification after after cutting and blooding Matt Hamill. With the exception of that loss he has finished his last four opponents inside the Octagon including the previously unbeaten Ryan Bader and tough veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. He introduced spinning back elbows and simply jumping over an adversary to take their back. He is athletic, exciting, unorthodox and a sponge for the sport of MMA. All fans can think of is how good and how far can Jon Jones go?

If you listen to all this hype you can't help but assume that Shogun Rua is only safekeeping Jones' championship belt. You would be terribly wrong. In his pride days, Shogun was much like Jon Jones is now. He did things in the ring that no one else had or could. He finished opponents, he knocked people out (Ricardo Arona), he made others quit (Rampage Jackson). It seemed the only thing keeping from holding Pride gold was that his mentor and good friend Wanderlei Silva held that belt. Then the injuries came and the surgeries then Pride folded into the UFC and a long layoff followed. He looked tired and not at all like his old self in his first few UFC bouts, especially in his loss to Forrest Griffin. But the Shogun of old returned beginning with his knockout of MMA legend Chuck Liddell. In his first UFC title fight against Lyoto Machida he lost a controversial decision but avenged that with a first round knock out in the rematch. Now he faces Jon Jones and a highly anticipated bout.

Anyone who assumes Shogun will be outclassed and over matched on the feet by Jones forgets Shogun knocked out Alistair Overeem. Shogun solved the Machida puzzle and made Rampage Jackson quit. Jones does possess a large physical advantage over Shogun on the feet but Shogun is not new to anything in MMA. He has the technical skill to neutralize or overcome this disadvantage. The other common assumption is that Jones will out-wrestle and out-grapple Shogun. While does not possess a direct wrestling background, his jiu-jitsu is above average and has used it to gain an advantage on the ground. He was not outwrestled by Kevin Randleman or Mark Coleman (in their second encounter). Shogun has not been overwhelmed by any opponent in his career and I don't expect Jon Jones to be the first. Shogun will be game for whatever the fight brings.

The bigger question for me is how Jon Jones will react to adversity. In all his UFC bouts, Jon Jones has dominated. He has not been in a second of trouble, which is what has made him such a fan favorite. But to me, the best measure of a a fighter is how he takes a punch, how he overcomes a tough opponent. That is what has made fighters like Randy Couture and Fedor Emelianenko favorites. They won, but they also when at times when the odds where stacked against the. We have not had the opportunity to see Jon Jones face those odds. I have a feeling he will be put in dire straits in this bout by Shogun and I also believe his vast physical attributes will carry past the troubles towards a victory against Shogun.

I expect the bout to be exciting and thrilling and set a new standard of excellence for MMA and the UFC. We will see the crowning of a new king of the light heavyweight division with hopes that he can defend that title better than the last few that have held it.

Here are my picks for the remaining fights :

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland – Faber via TKO round 3

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland – Benavidez via Unanimous decision

CroCop vs. Brendan Schaub – Schaub via TKO round 2

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus – Miller via decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller – Marquardt via TKO round 2

Raphael Assuncao vs. Erik Koch – Koch via decision

Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle – Almeida via decision

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau – Pellegrino via TKO round 3

Anthony Njokuani vs. Edson Barboza Jr. - Barboza via TKO round 2

Constantinos Philippou vs. Nick Catone – Catone via KO round 1

Luis Artur Cane Jr. vs. Eliot Marshal – Cane via KO round 1