UFC 128 pits the top two light heavyweights in UFC battling for supremacy

UFC 128 Shogun vs. Jones in Newark, New Jersey will hopefully show fans where the evolution of MMA will lead. The main event pits champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua against the top prospect in the light heavyweight division, Jon “Bones” Jones. This will be Shogun's first title defense and Jones' first title fight. Odds makers have Jones as an 8 to 5 favorite over the champion and with good reason.

Few fighters have created as much buzz and fan awe as Jon Jones has. His record is 12 – 1 with his only loss coming via disqualification after after cutting and blooding Matt Hamill. With the exception of that loss he has finished his last four opponents inside the Octagon including the previously unbeaten Ryan Bader and tough veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. He introduced spinning back elbows and simply jumping over an adversary to take their back. He is athletic, exciting, unorthodox and a sponge for the sport of MMA. All fans can think of is how good and how far can Jon Jones go?

If you listen to all this hype you can't help but assume that Shogun Rua is only safekeeping Jones' championship belt. You would be terribly wrong. In his pride days, Shogun was much like Jon Jones is now. He did things in the ring that no one else had or could. He finished opponents, he knocked people out (Ricardo Arona), he made others quit (Rampage Jackson). It seemed the only thing keeping from holding Pride gold was that his mentor and good friend Wanderlei Silva held that belt. Then the injuries came and the surgeries then Pride folded into the UFC and a long layoff followed. He looked tired and not at all like his old self in his first few UFC bouts, especially in his loss to Forrest Griffin. But the Shogun of old returned beginning with his knockout of MMA legend Chuck Liddell. In his first UFC title fight against Lyoto Machida he lost a controversial decision but avenged that with a first round knock out in the rematch. Now he faces Jon Jones and a highly anticipated bout.

Anyone who assumes Shogun will be outclassed and over matched on the feet by Jones forgets Shogun knocked out Alistair Overeem. Shogun solved the Machida puzzle and made Rampage Jackson quit. Jones does possess a large physical advantage over Shogun on the feet but Shogun is not new to anything in MMA. He has the technical skill to neutralize or overcome this disadvantage. The other common assumption is that Jones will out-wrestle and out-grapple Shogun. While does not possess a direct wrestling background, his jiu-jitsu is above average and has used it to gain an advantage on the ground. He was not outwrestled by Kevin Randleman or Mark Coleman (in their second encounter). Shogun has not been overwhelmed by any opponent in his career and I don't expect Jon Jones to be the first. Shogun will be game for whatever the fight brings.

The bigger question for me is how Jon Jones will react to adversity. In all his UFC bouts, Jon Jones has dominated. He has not been in a second of trouble, which is what has made him such a fan favorite. But to me, the best measure of a a fighter is how he takes a punch, how he overcomes a tough opponent. That is what has made fighters like Randy Couture and Fedor Emelianenko favorites. They won, but they also when at times when the odds where stacked against the. We have not had the opportunity to see Jon Jones face those odds. I have a feeling he will be put in dire straits in this bout by Shogun and I also believe his vast physical attributes will carry past the troubles towards a victory against Shogun.

I expect the bout to be exciting and thrilling and set a new standard of excellence for MMA and the UFC. We will see the crowning of a new king of the light heavyweight division with hopes that he can defend that title better than the last few that have held it.

Here are my picks for the remaining fights :

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland – Faber via TKO round 3

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland – Benavidez via Unanimous decision

CroCop vs. Brendan Schaub – Schaub via TKO round 2

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus – Miller via decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller – Marquardt via TKO round 2

Raphael Assuncao vs. Erik Koch – Koch via decision

Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle – Almeida via decision

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau – Pellegrino via TKO round 3

Anthony Njokuani vs. Edson Barboza Jr. - Barboza via TKO round 2

Constantinos Philippou vs. Nick Catone – Catone via KO round 1

Luis Artur Cane Jr. vs. Eliot Marshal – Cane via KO round 1

UFC 127 Penn vs. Fitch will give us No. 1 contender for Georges St. Pierre championship belt

For UFC 127 Penn vs. Fitch fans will get to see what the future of the UFC welterweight division might look like. With Georges St. Pierre set to defend his welterweight title against Jake Shields in Toronto at UFC 129 and possibly jumping to the middleweight division and a super-mega-fight against Anderson Silva, the B.J. Penn/Jon Fitch match-up sets up the winner as the number one contender for the presumably vacant middleweight title. The bigger question is will anyone care? Georges St. Pierre domination of the welterweight division has made all other 170 competitors obsolete. Georges St. Pierre makes everyone look bad and normal regardless of their skill level. What's worse is if Jon Fitch defeats B.J. Penn, he is even more dominant (i.e. boring) fighter than St. Pierre. The last time one of Jon Fitch's fights did not go to decision was almost four years ago on June 2007. As for B.J. Penn he's already lost two straight to Georges St. Pierre and looked wholly outclassed in their last outing. Fans have seen nothing to indicate a different outcome a third time.

As for the fight itself, it is a bit interesting. B.J. Penn is undoubtedly one of the top five most talented athletes in MMA. He can do things in the Octagon that normal fighters don't even dream of. He has outstanding speed and punching power, excellent balance, flexibility and agility. He is a world class BJJ practitioner. He is probably the most difficult fighter to achieve a takedown against. He has challenged himself throughout his career. He fought Lyoto Machida, a light-heavyweight UFC champion, and lost a decision. There is nothing B.J. Penn can not do in a MMA battle. Except maybe go a full three rounds, much less five. That is where a fighter like Jon Fitch comes in. The only thing that Jon Fitch does really well is keep going and break his opponent's spirit and will.

Jon Fitch is not the best wrestler, striker, or grappler. He has average stand up and fairly slow hands. He throws decent kicks. What he can do is push, push and push. He has a granite chin. Just take another look at his bout with St. Pierre if you doubt that. So far in his career, Jon Fitch has not faced the man that wants the victory more than him. Although B.J. Penn is a warrior and takes a bout in the Octagon with the mentality of a samurai, I do not think he is the man to break Jon Fitch.

Yes, B.J. Penn has the ability to end the bout in the fraction of a second with a punch or submission. But he has rarely showed those dynamics against the top talent he's faced. He has a tendency to gas or fold or fade or whatever anyone wants to call it, against the top competition. He did it against Jens Pulver, against Matt Hughes, and twice against Georges St. Pierre and Frankie Edgar respectively. I hope this is a competitive fight and really, I'm pulling for B.J. Penn to come out from under the shadow that has haunted him against top tier competition. Unfortunately, history does not favor him.

In the co-main event at UFC 127, Michael Bisping meets the surging Jorge Rivera. Rivera is making the most of his second shot in the UFC and used his mouth to put himself in the co-main event against the UK poster boy for the UFC. Bisping is not my favorite fighter. He has good, average skills and excellent footwork but he has benefited most from a huge push by the UFC and being placed against the right competion. Anytime he has faced anything above C level competion he has either failed miserably (Dan Henderson) or barely survived a boring decision (Matt Hamill, Chris Leben). Unfortunately, I don't see Jorge Rivera being one of the ones to topple Bisping. Rivera is a brawler with lots of heart but rarely imposes himself on an opponent. I see this fight going much like Bisping's fights against Hamill and Leben. Bisping will use his footwork to avoid punishment and pepper Rivera with the occasional jab or straight right. Just doing enough to escape another highlight KO and earn a decision. As much as I may want Rivera to flatten Bisping, I don't see him overcoming Bisping's footwork.