UFC 185: Pettis Vs. Dos Anjos

UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Pettis (-430) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+435)

Interesting match-up in the main event. Since his uneventful defeat at the lay and pray of Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis has looked every bit of the dynamic athlete he promised to be in his WEC days. After proving he could wrestle against Jeremy Stephens, Pettis has finished his last four opponents including former UFC/WEC champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, both had never been finished at that point. He has done it not only with athleticism but a very high skill level as well as cage IQ. He strikes unexpectedly and does not lose an opening. Against Melendez, some may argue Pettis lost the first round. Melendez rushed and pressured him against the cage and controlled the round, not giving Pettis the space he loves to perform. In round two, Melendez left an opening, was rocked by a strike and quickly finished in a classic guillotine choke. Small mistakes and failure to impose their game plan will cost any Pettis opponent dearly.

In Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis finds an opponent almost as gifted and probably larger and stronger. Dos Anjos is riding his own 3 fight win streak finishing 2 of those including the first ever knockout of Ben Henderson. He is an exceptional Thai kickboxer with vicious and accurate kicks. Beating Donald Cerrone goes a long way towards opening people's eyes to your stand up skills. Yet in 30 professional bouts he has only registered 8 KO's. He does have 11 submissions on his resume but hasn't submitted an opponent since 2012. He does have the physical attributes to hang with Pettis but for how long? Dos Anjos has shown the ability to employ a game plan, follow it to a decision victory. But Pettis is not run of the mill opponent.

One of the rarely discussed aspects of the fight game is footwork. But I emphasize it tremendously. A few MMA fighters possess next level footwork. Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva. Anthony Pettis is nearing that level. If a fighter can control where the fight takes place he controls the outcome. That's where Pettis has the largest advantage. Dos Anjos is a solid wrestler and BJJ practioner but Pettis learned plenty in his loss to Clay Guida. since that loss, his takedown defense has been exceptional. Assuming Pettis can stuff the takedown, his fluid mobility on the feet will confound dos Anjos and keep him guessing. While dos Anjos is solid in the kicking game, Pettis is creative and deadly. He strikes from anywhere, anytime with accuracy and power. While his opponent is trying to time a leg kick Pettis is busy doing Crescent kicks or wheel kicks or some new invention we've never seen. He is a showman with victory on his mind. While dos Anjos is not merely another opponent, he will face the same fate as the previous contenders. I look for 2nd round finish via ref stoppage by strikes. Pettis will catch dos Anjos in a scramble and finish him brilliantly.

UFC 126 Silva vs. Belfort will put Anderson Silva's Considerable Skills on Display

At UFC 126, fans will get to see MMAs premier talent, Anderson Silva face probably his greatest threat in Vitor Belfort. The outcome of the match-up carries heavy consequences for the UFC and MMA. Anderson Silva has ruled over the UFCs middleweight division since his destruction of Rich Franklin in 2006 and successfully dabbled in the light heavyweight division. If Anderson Silva wins, that leaves only Yushin Okami as a contender but even though Okami is the last man to defeat Anderson Silva (via disqualification) that match-up is not likely to garner interest from fans or Dana White. But if Vitor Belfort pulls off the upset? That opens up the UFCs middleweight division.

Can Vitor Belfort pull off the upset?

Vitor “the Phenom” Belfort is almost a tailor made foil for Anderson Silva. From his introduction to MMA fans in UFC 12, Vitor Belfort has carried a Mike Tyson-esque aura about him. Gifted with blinding hand speed, one-punch knockout power and excellent ground acumen, Belfort has the necessary MMA tools to defeat anyone. Unfortunately, Vitor tends to run hot and cold. At times pushed around as in his UFC loss to Randy Couture and at others plain over matched or uninterested as in losses to Alistair Overeem and Kazushi Sakuraba. Luckily for UFC fans, Vitor Belfort seems to finally have put it all together and not lost since a uninamous decision to Dan Henderson in 2006. At every outing he has looked crisp, sharp and focused. More importantly, he seems to always have a game plan instead of relying on natural talent as in the past.

Only Chris Leben has been foolish enough to challenge Anderson Silva on the feet and that ended badly for Leben. But the Phenom will not be afraid to stand against Anderson as he himself has never been knocked out. The problem is, Anderson Silva absorbs shots with a granite chin and is way too crafty on his feet. Anderson will probably be the only opponent Vitor will ever face with more natural talent than himself. That's where Vitor Belfort will have to show maturity and patience. It is unlikely that Vitor Belfort can win a stand up battle against Anderson Silva. Silva has way too many weapons for Belfort. The fact that Vitor Belfort does not have to run from a stand up battle though is a game changer. If the Phenom uses Chael Sonnens game plan and utilizes the stand up as a set up for take downs, Vitor stands a chance. Can Vitor Belfort submit Anderson? Highly doubtful. But the biggest chink in Anderson's arsenal has been the ability for opponents to ground him a la Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen. What Vitor needs to look for is control and ground and pound from the top. Anderson Silva was in many precarious positions against Sonnen, but Sonnen lacked punching power. Belfort does not have that issue. The problem with this game plan is that Vitor has a tendency to fade in fights and not react well when opponents do not crumble at his feet. Will he take Silva down? Will he be able to ground and pound and avoid the Spider's lethal stand up and submissions?

How the fight will unfold and what's in it for Silva

My thoughts for the main event of UFC 126 are that Anderson Silva will withstand an electric first round from the Phenom and end the fight with either a TKO or submission in the second round. I just can't see Anderson Silva being caught by Vitor early and Vitor has never shown he can overcome ring adversity. He folded against most of the top competition he faced. Couture, Liddell, Sakuraba and others all found ways to withstand or neutralize Belfort's strengths and impose their own, something I see Anderson Silva doing. For Silva though, this is an opportunity for him to showcase his skills. MMA fans have criticized Silva for not taking chances in previous fights and laying back. His retort has been that those fighters were not willing to trade with him and it was not his job to deliver exciting fights but to win. Well, Vitor Belfort will certainly welcome a stand up battle at least initially and has the skills to trade with Anderson. Silva will not have an excuse this time for a boring fight but rather an open door to deliver fans a wide display of his MMA skills. Plus, if he wins, Anderson Silva will have essentially cleaned out the UFC middleweight division and can entertain more invitations to the light heavyweight ranks that so far have shown no more an obstacle than middleweights. Look for an explosive first round which Anderson Silva may finish late or at the very least tip the momentum his way en route to a second round stoppage firmly establishing himself as the top pound for pound MMA fighter in the world.