UFC on FOX was put together on the premise that the victors would provide either a clear cut #1 contender for the UFC Middleweight belt or at least which two contenders would fight to deduce the #1 contender. With Yoel Romero dropping out due to injury, Ronaldo Souza will have to deliver a highlight performance to stay in the running for that spot because Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is as fan friendly and PPV worthy as any matchup the UFC has put on.
At middleweight, Lyoto Machida (+125) is 3 - 1 with his only loss a very hard fought decision one against unbeaten champ Chris Weidman. With the exception of his quick KO loss in his rematch against Shogun Rua, it's difficult to say Machida has ever looked bad against anyone. Machida presents a difficult puzzle for anyone at anytime. He is swift, moves in and out, world class footwork and striking. There are no two Lyoto Machidas. One can not prepare for what he brings into the Octagon. The knock on Machida though has been he tends to react not act. He Waits on his opponent. If he can not entice his foe to act recklessly or engage, Lyoto at times seems to stand still. This holds true especially for high level opponents. But if he can get his opponent's distance and timing and/or he does not fear them, his results have been above par. Machida strikes from unexpected places and angles. He can put together multiple strikes and not just from his hands. He is equally adapt at knees and kicks. He has some of the best takedown defense in MMA but will use his Judo to take his foe down at his will.
In Luke Rockhold (-145) Machida will face for maybe the first time someone with almost the same skill set if not better. Just like Machida, it's impossible to find a match in which Rockhold looked bad. His loss against Vitor Belfort was short and he simply fought a legend in one of his many primes who unleashed a kick few could have avoided on that night. Aside from that moment, Rockhold has looked every bit the All American he is billed as. He has seemed a bit stiff at times but in his last few fights more fluidity has showed. He possess a powerful and aggressive stand up game. Rockhold usually strikes with discipline and fire. I have yet to see him back down from a fire fight, but he does not throw caution to the wind. More importantly, he possesses the ability to control where the fight will take place. Rockhold has finished many of his opponents via submission so going to the ground with him would not necessarily equal a win. He is very strong which has been a struggle for Machida in the past. Rockhold did defeat Jacare but that was a much different Jacare we are witnessing today. In fact, Jacare should thank Rockhold for the fighter he has become. That loss taught Jacare he needed to improve all aspects of his game, not just the ground game. In total, Rockhold's good locks are just a front for a fighter on the verge of a title shot.
Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em fight with Rockhold as a slight favorite. I tend to think that Rockhold's aggressive style is tailor made for Machida. Allowing Machida to find openings and holes. Yet, the agressive style may also make Machida clam up and become strictly defensive. The fight should remain on the feet throughout. Meaning the aggressor will probably win. Rockhold was caught once. Belfort posterized him. But he didn't come back gun shy or timid. He came back determined. Machida has fought the toughest in the UFC. This is nothing new for him. But at the top of the top, he has fallen short more often than not. I give this one to Rockhold via unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight.
The rest of my picks:
Jacare KO's Camozzi
Swanson decisons Holloway
No comments:
Post a Comment