UFC Fight Night : Gonzaga vs. CroCop 2

Eight years after Gabriel Gonzaga (-175) immortalized himself and posterized Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic (135) by turning the tables on the head kick king of MMA, the rematch is set. UFC brass setting the rematch in Krakow, Poland is a huge statement on the draw power of the main event combatants. Nonetheless a fight night we have, an interesting one at that.

Right kick hospital. Left kick cemetery. That was the pre-2007 CroCop. At their first meeting, CroCop was coming off his (anyone's really) biggest achievement. The previous year CroCop won the Pride Absolute Grand Prix defeating Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on the same night. Ask any champion in any organization to do that now. He had finally arrived in the UFC and looked sluggish in his first outing, but won. The match against Gonzaga was simply a rest stop on his way to a title bout against Randy Couture. Gonzaga ended those hopes and changed CroCop's career with a high kick at the end of round 1. Does CroCop have an answer or something different now?

Since his match against Fedor Emelianenko foes became aware that CroCop didn't do well when not allowed to set. Fedor kept him retreating, never allowing him to unleash his patented offense. CroCop does not deal well with opponent's who either don't fear him or don't fall at his strikes. He has not only become gun shy due to multiple recent KO and TKO losses and his 40 year old body does not function the way it used to. CroCop still has some power left in him, it's a matter of his being able and willing to unleash it. He can no longer dart in and out and sprawl the way he used to and has always had a tendency to keep his hands low. See the Gonzaga KO. Is CroCop a shot fighter? Hard to tell. But the physical attributes that placed him at the top of the heavyweight division and masked some of his shortfalls are no longer there. He is still not someone you want to stand and bang with, taking chances. On the feet is his best chance at victory, via multitude of strikes.

Gabriel Gonzaga conversely has deteriorated in the years since the first fight, but remains the better all around fighter. I do not believe in luck in sports, especially MMA. Athletes are highly trained, disciplined and prepared. I do believe that 98 out of 100 times Gonzaga does not land that kick on CroCop. Before that the fight was fairly even with Gonzaga spending some time on top. But Gonzaga did land that kick. Since that fight Gonzaga has been Ko'd or TKO'd 6 times out of 8 losses. Like many grapplers who find success in MMA using 4oz gloves, Gonzaga has fallen in love with his striking, believing he can stand with anyone if he did against CroCop. Maybe a seventh knockout loss will convince him otherwise. Gonzaga is top heavyweight grappler and submission specialist. He needs to focus on takedowns and ground control to win this fight. If he does so, he could easily win by submission or earn a late stoppage. CroCop will have no answer for his ground and pound. But if Gonzaga decides he can KO CroCop again, he is flirting with disaster. He does not have the footwork or strike savvy to back up CroCop, especially in round one with a fresh CroCop. And if CroCop can set and unload, right kick hospital, left kick cemetery.

In a pick 'em fight, one would expect Gonzaga to play it safe, especially with his UFC career most likely on the line. But Gonzaga has repeatedly and disastrously shown he believes he can stand with anyone. He forsakes his takedowns and gets lulled into a stand up battle he can't win. He does not posses a weak chin. In the heavyweight division, any punch or kick is devastating. The worst thing that will happen in this fight is CroCop landing a straight left or a high kick and Gonzaga eating it. He will believe he can take the strikes and remain standing, losing the fight. Fighting on as close to home turf as possible for CroCop, I expect him to step up and win this fight via unanimous decision.

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