UFC 141 Lesnar vs. Overeem will be like watching two Brahma bulls battle

Few things in combat sports can capture an audience like two giants battling inside the Octagon. At UFC 141 MMA fans will be treated to such a matchup between former champion Brock Lesnar and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem. On fight night the two will combine for probably over 575 pounds inside the Octagon. While few men in this world can make Brock Lesnar seem small, standing side by side, Alistair Overrem achieves just that. But will that translate into victory?

Alistair "Demolition Man" Overeem is riding a wave of success and hype, having not lost since 2007 covering an 11 fight unbeaten streak. While he is relatively unknown to UFC fans, just one look at his massive physique lets them know he is not a fighter to be taken lightly. Brock Lesnar, on the other hand, comes in on the heels of a rough loss against former heavyweight king, Cain Velasquez, in which his massive holes in his stand up were soundly exposed. Yet he remains a top tier force in the heavyweight division and more importantly in the UFC's marketing plan. So Dana White's best idea for Lesnar's return to the Octagon is to pit him against one of the world's elite strikers, MMA or otherwise. At stake for Brock Lesnar is not only a title shot but more importantly his ability to prove he can bang and remain with the elite in the UFC.

Through his rise in the heavyweight ranks, I have not been a believer in Alistair Overeem. In his 11 fight streak the best fighter he beat was Fabricio Werdum whom he defeated by decision mainly because Fabricio was unable to bring Overeem to the mat. Werdum is a ground specialist but not a takedown artist. All other  fighters during the streak were either over the hill or unproven and in way over their heads. The Alistair Overeem I recall is the one that went 2-5 immediately before the streak began and being KOd or TKOd by the likes of Kharitonov, Rua, Arona and Nogueira. I remember the one that gasses in fights and has difficulty with adversity. The one who can not stop a takedown. He has not fought a single wrestler during his winning streak.

On paper, most see Brock Lesnar at a disadvantage. He himself has not reacted well to being hit in the face and now he faces one of the purest strikers in MMA? I agree with Lesnar's recent comments that he can take a punch, there are no problems with his chin. He just doesn't like being hit in the face and doesn't react like a we expect him to. While Overeem will surely land punches, Lesnar will surely get a clinch or a single or double and take the fight to the ground and erase the striking advantage. He did so against Frank Mir and Randy Couture and even Cain Velasquez. But Velasquez was able to get back to his feet and re-establish his striking advantage. I don't see Alistair Overeem doing that. There is something daunting in having a 285lb monster on top of you who moves like a welterweight and that  is definitely something the Demolition Man has never faced before. Even if Overeem escapes to the later rounds, Lesnar's cardio has never been questioned especially when he dominates. Unless he is able to land a fight ending strike, I see Alistair Overeem slowly folding under the force that is Brock Lesnar en route to a third round TKO victory for Brock and a return trip to a title tilt against Junior dos Santos.

At UFC 140, Jon Jones Shows Growth, Frank Mir Submits a Legend

Few were surprised by the outcome of Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida. Although Machida going to sleep and thrown down like a rag doll was probably not a popular prediction I didn't see many predicting Machida to pull any sort of upset. The fight also proved more entertaining than most thought. Lyoto Machida came out disciplined with an exceptional game plan of constant movement and darting strikes which for the first round confused the young champ Jones. But Jones' skill and physical attributes are just too much for most light heavyweights. What we did see was Jones face some adversity and rise above. On my scorecard, Machida won the first round managing to actually land solid strikes on Jones. Between rounds, Jon Jones seemed confused and a bit worried but like any true competitor came out in round two and turned the tide. What future opponent's need to learn from this bout is that it is possible to win a distance fight against the long Jon Jones, but you better be ready for a clinch and takedown sometime during the fight. Machida was not. By no means is this the "blueprint" to defeat Jones but it is worth it to apply some of these tactics in future game planning. Who can repeat these tactics in the division? The only name that comes to mind is Shogun but we've all seen how that ended. Dan Henderson? He has the ability to rush Jones once, maybe twice but lacks the fluid movement Lyoto Machida displayed. Henderson would have to utilize a rush and clinch tactic and still seems a Jon Jones strong suit. Rashad Evans? Doubtful. He would definitely try to out-wrestle Jones and that would we be a mistake. Phil Davis? Way too inexperienced and one dimensional still. Lil' Nog? Same. Anderson Silva?

He certainly has the skill, movement and fluidity to attack in similar fashion but can he stop a Jon Jones take down? I'd love to see him try. As for Machida, he looked great for one round and showed he still belongs in the UFC but it will be a while before he receives another title shot. I'd like to see him in there against a rising Stephan Bonnar or Stanislav Nedkov so we can see what Nedkov is made of.

Much of the talk of UFC 140 is about the damage caused by Frank Mir on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's arm. Nogueira is and always be a legend in the sport of MMA. His accomplishments are on another level of his peers. With that said he faced a Frank Mir that to the surprise of everyone was one step ahead on the ground at UFC 140. The focus and seamless grappling displayed by Mir was a thing of beauty even if the outcome made some squirm. I'm not sure who, if anyone, expected Rodrigo Nogueira to tap. Frank Mir has been criticized for his perceived lack of remorse at  Nogueira's injuries and I feel unjustly. He did his job and Nogueira did his and the result was maybe a career ending injury for Minotauro. Does this place as next in line for a title shot? Because of lack of talent pool, yes. In reality he still displayed some of his drawbacks. Willingness to stay on the feet against superior strikers and more importantly, getting stunned quickly. Can he withstand Junior Dos Santos' hands? No. Would another rematch with Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin end differently if they caught him again. No. He still an extremely talented and marketable fighter who belongs at the very top of the UFC mountain, he just can't knock the guys at the top of that mountain off. To see if he's really changed and improved, I'd like to see him face Cain Velasquez relentless pace and quick hands. Frank Mir is certainly no gatekeeper but has had small success against the very top tier UFC heavyweights.

As for Nogueira, his future is unclear. He certainly faces a very long rehabilitation at minimum and retirement at worst. He has nothing to be ashamed of in this fight or his career if it ends. Everyone gets caught. If he returns I would like to see him face middle tier talent like Pat Barry or Mike Russow to see where he is at without risking much.

UFC 140 Machida vs. Jones Will Either be Fireworks or Put Us to Sleep

Jon "Bones" Jones has seemed unstoppable in his young career. He does things in the Octagon that not only defy belief and require his athletic ability but also show Octagon intellect and imagination. From jumping over Ryan Bader to take his back to his patented spinning back fist, Jon Jones shows all the ability imaginable and he's only 24. He has yet to really even break a sweat in the Octagon. On Saturday December 10, he faces Lyoto "the Dragon" Machida who not so long ago was touted as the second coming himself. When he knocked out Rashad Evans to win the belt we were told we had entered the Machida era. Well, that era lasted one lackluster title defense and one brutal KO loss, both to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. He followed that up with another loss to Quinton Jackson before a highlight reel knockout of Randy Couture. Not that he is undeserving, but Machida is getting the title shot because Rashad Evans seemed to sprout injuries when scheduled to fight Jon Jones and no one else has built enough steam to justify a title shot. Regardless, this is an interesting fight to a point.

We have two fighters who fight on timing and distance. the Jon Jones puzzle has yet to be solved while the Machida myth was smashed by Shogun. Machida loves to dash in and out and counter his opponent. He controls the Octagon like few others and is probably the most difficult to land a solid strike against. Aside from his fights with Shogun, who showed extreme patience and discipline, the Machida style is still not an easily solved puzzle. The problem is that Jon Jones style is similar in that he uses his length to dictate how and where the fight will take place. He shows something something new and innovative each time out. He used kicks to the thigh as a jab against Rampage Jackson to keep him at the necessary distance. He is almost impossible to take down and how will Machida keep him down if he gets him on the ground? The largest obstacle Jones' opponents face is not just Jon Jones' size and reach but that he knows how to use it. Many fighters have enjoyed such freakish advanteages over opponents. Tim Sylvia, Corey Hill, Semmy Schilt, to name a few. None of them can use their attribute to the advantage Jon Jones does. So how can Machida defeat Jon Jones? On paper, there are not many ways for Lyoto Machida to succeed. But as they say, that's why they play the game. Jon jones' chin has yet to be tested. Fans have yet to see him overcome adversity. Machida has a style and physical attributes to give Jones trouble and 6 oz gloves are the great equalizer.

Unfortunately for Machida, Jon Jones has a high Octagon IQ and comes from Greg Jackson's camp. Jon Jones will be prepared. I expect Jones to take Machida down early and beat him up there like he has many other opponents. Machida has not spent much time on his back and I don't see him just standing up against Jones. Expect the elbows to rain on Machida before his father mercifully throws in the towel for a second or third round stoppage.

My fear is that with both fighters playing the distance game, neither will exchange until the time is right and we'll have ourselves another Severn/Shamrock. With Jackson camp's tendency to play it safe this is a possibility, but not likely. Jon Jones has become more vocal and confident of late and he better come in ready to back all that up because one straight left from Machida can bring his ego down real quick.

Can Cain Velazquez overcome Junior Dos Santos on the UFCs biggest night?

On November 12th Cain Velazquez puts his heavyweight belt on the line for the first time against Junior Dos Santos live and free on FOX. While most of the talk surrounds this being the UFCs first opportunity on broadcast television and what effect that will have on the company's bottom line, MMA fans are more interested in who will triumph in MMA's biggest heavyweight match-up since Fedor-CroCop.

Cain Velazquez has been almost unstoppable in his short 9 fight career. Tho only man to go the distance against him is the steady Cheick Kongo. Kongo is also the only man to show even a glimpse of weakness in Cain, rocking him early in that fight. But like all great gladiators, Velazquez rose to the challenge and controlled the rest of the fight. He has not been challenged by anyone else in his career. Even in his fight against Brock Lesnar, Cain showed excellent wrestling, octagon control and   veteran resilience to quickly turn the tide against the behemoth and earn a TKO heavyweight title victory. My hesitation in jumping on the brown pride bandwagon is purely aesthetic. I just wish he had been challenged more in his career. As a fan, I like to see what a fighter's made of when things are not going his way. Much like Georges St. Pierre folded (and will again the next time) when Matt Serra rocked him. but when you're as gifted and skilled as Cain Velazquez is, those rocky moments are and far between. Having a wrestling base is his biggest asset. He can control where the fight takes place. He quickly stood after a take down against Lesnar and took him down also. the one negative in his game is that he is not a natural striker and because of his success on the feet, he may believe he can bang against Junior dos Santos. Yes he knocked out Minotauro and TKO'd Brock Lesnar but Junior dos Santos will be the most complete stand-up fighter Cain has faced. Probably the best in the heavyweight division.
Junior dos Santos conversely has faced slightly higher pedigree fighters but also has yet to truly be tested. his last two fights have gone the distance but the outcome was never in doubt. In the UFC he has yet to be rocked or even in jeopardy of a submission. He has KO'd or submitted 5 of his 7 UFC opponents including the likes of Gonzaga, Werdun, Yvel and CroCop. He dismantled Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He has excellent take down defense, superior ground skills, excellent footwork, top notch cardio and the best hands in the heavyweight division. Of course, Cain Velazquez' take downs are superior to those of Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin so his take down defense will be tested. The question is, how can he beat Cain? His best shot is on the feet. Junior has shown exceptional ability to keep a fight standing via volume or superior footwork. But Cain has show similar ability. We have yet to see dos Santos on his back for a prolonged period of time and my money is on Cain Velazquez achieving that. Will Junior dos Santos wilt or rise? I feel Junior dos Santos will rise to the challenge but not enough for a victory. 
Cain Velazquez will hold his own on the feet then take the fight to the ground when the timing is right to win the early rounds. As the fight wears on Cain will use his endless cardio tank to batter and bloody Junior dos Santos with a vicious ground and pound. dos santos will fight back valiantly and show that he is worthy of a rematch but not enough to wrest the championship gold from Cain Velazquez.

Leben and Munoz Clash in Historic 5 Round Tussle

Chris Leben and Mark Munoz face off in the main event of UFC 138 on tape delay on SpikeTV from England. Aside from pitting two evenly matched middleweights, this match is historic because it will be the first non-title five round MMA bout. Will it go the five rounds? Probably not. Mark Munoz is as good a wrestler in MMA and training with Chael Sonnen doesn't hurt either. He has the ability to take down Leben repeatedly and keep him there. If Maia couldn't submit Munoz, I doubt Chris Leben can pull off the submission. Mark Munoz learned alot after Matt Hamill head kicked him into unconsciousness. Don't strike with a striker, secure the win first. He's gone 6-1 since, his only loss coming via decision against another superb wrestler, Yushin Okami. What Chris Leben brings is a never say die attitude and the ability to entice almost anyone into brawl they can not win. Anytime you think he's out, when you think he's hurt, that's when he as at his most dangerous. His achilles is lack of defense and limited skills. Michael Bisping was able to dance around the Octagon and avoid solid strikes and Leben is susceptible to takedowns and ground and pound. In his favor is that every round starts on the feet. If he can entice Mark Munoz into a stand up battle or get Munoz to wear himself out as he did against Akiyama, he has a chance. While Chris Leben's cardio has never been up to par, he has shown to have more heart when both combatants are low on fuel. No matter, I see Mark Munoz pulling out a bloody, tough decision victory against a gutsy Leben.

The only other fight on the card that excites me is Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi. I was never one sold on Alves. I never really understood his builup to welterweight title contender. Yes, he showed exciting stand up skills but also many holes on the feet and more on the ground. He tends to get sloppy on the feet with  looping punches and little footwork. He has also been outclassed and submitted on the ground by anyone with any semblance of ground skills. And he has trouble making weight. his biggest victory, a TKO of Matt Hughes came after he grossly missed weight and probably showed up on fight night at least 10 pounds heavier than Hughes. Nonetheless, the firepower in his hands makes him a very dangerous foe for anyone. Papy Abedi shows up with a perfect 8-0 record filled with KO and submission victories. But has fought mainly C level competition. Will he fold under the bright lights pressure of a UFC debut? He is fighting on his side of the pond and will probably have friends and family in the audience cheering him on. If his standup is half as good as it is advertised, he may have what it takes to wear down Alves. But I doubt it. Thiago Alves can be outclassed and decisioned but by top level grapplers, not mid-level strikers. Alves has rarely been in trouble on the feet, most, as champion St. Pierre did, rather ground him and take their chances there. Choosing to stand against "The Pitbull" will be Papy's undoing. Expect an early second round highlight KO from Alves.

The rest of the card :

Renan "Barao" submits Brad Pickett

Terry Etim crushes Eddie Faalolotto

Cyrille Diabate earns a tough decision against Anthony Perosh

Jason Young hands Omigawa his walking papers

UFC 137 Pits St. Pierre against a Killer

On October 29 in Las Vegas Georges St. Pierre once again faces an opponent, Carlos Condit, that few outside Condit's camp give any chance at success. GSP has been such a dominant welterweight for so long, really his entire career, that it is difficult now for fans to get excited about any of his matches. With the exception of the slip ups against Matt hughes and especially Matt Serra, St. Pierre has dispatched all comers with relative ease. It seems GSP's kryptonite is only men named Matt. He is criticized for not finishing fights as of late. His last finish was almost 3 years ago against  BJ Penn. He plays it safe and works for a decision detractors say. Well, that may be true but it is his opponents' job to not allow GSP  to impose his game plan and beat him. Above all it is GSP's job to win, not to provide entertainment. Will Carlos Condit prove any different?

Condit has been on a tear since coming over to the UFC from the WEC. He lost his first bout against Martin Kampmann but has knocked out his last 3 opponents including previously un-knocked out Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim. Of his 27 victories, Condit has finished his opponent 26 times via either KO or submission. Does that mean anything against GSP? Probably not. St. Pierre learned a huge lesson against Matt Serra. Don't stand and trade against anyone. Period. GSP has developed the most insulated style of MMA in the game. GSP has shown too much speed and technique for everyone on the feet. He engages when he wants to, how he wants to and takes less chances than Tom Coughlin on a fourth and one. For all his highlight reel KOs I don't see Condit having the technique to coax a mistake from GSP. If he does, GSP will get one of his patented takedowns and dominate on the ground. GSP plays it safe but wins via fourth round submission. Carlos Condit will show up to fight, not to be able to say he lasted five rounds against GSP like many of the previous challengers.

Ah, what might have been. For a couple of years now my dream match has been Nick Diaz vs. GSP. It was supposed to happen at UFC 137 but for whatever reason Nick Diaz orchestrated his own dismissal from the main event. As a punishment/reward he is still on the card and now faces BJ Penn. In many ways this will make for a much more exciting match than the proposed Diaz vs. GSP. Nick Diaz' Achilles heel has shown to be elite wrestlers which GSP stands atop of. But in BJ Penn, Diaz faces an opponent willing and able to stand or go to the ground with him. Diaz has always said opponents fear him on the ground. I don't think BJ Penn shares the sentiment. Penn fears nothing and no one, especially in the Octagon. Both guys have displayed iron chins. Has Penn ever even been rocked? No. But Diaz doesn't rely on power but volume. He wears opponents down with a pitter patter of punches and well placed and timed strikes. Ask Robbie Lawler and Paul Daley. He absorbs punishment like vitamins. Ask Gomi and Cyborg. I doubt BJ Penn attempts to ground and pound Nick Diaz. I expect a stand up war which Diaz will win in the third round via stoppage. His work on Penn's body by then taken its toll and a fighter notorious for relying on physical attributes rather than preparation.

My picks for the rest of the card :
Hatsu Hioki upsets George Roop
Roy Nelson sends Mirko Filipovic into well deserved retirement
Cheik Kongo lays the law down on Matt Mitrione
Scott Jorgensen out hustles Jeff Curran
Donald Cerrone taps Dennis Siver
Tyson Griffin debuts with a win against BartPalazsweski
Brandon Vera returns triumphantly against Eliot Marshal