UFC 140 Machida vs. Jones Will Either be Fireworks or Put Us to Sleep

Jon "Bones" Jones has seemed unstoppable in his young career. He does things in the Octagon that not only defy belief and require his athletic ability but also show Octagon intellect and imagination. From jumping over Ryan Bader to take his back to his patented spinning back fist, Jon Jones shows all the ability imaginable and he's only 24. He has yet to really even break a sweat in the Octagon. On Saturday December 10, he faces Lyoto "the Dragon" Machida who not so long ago was touted as the second coming himself. When he knocked out Rashad Evans to win the belt we were told we had entered the Machida era. Well, that era lasted one lackluster title defense and one brutal KO loss, both to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. He followed that up with another loss to Quinton Jackson before a highlight reel knockout of Randy Couture. Not that he is undeserving, but Machida is getting the title shot because Rashad Evans seemed to sprout injuries when scheduled to fight Jon Jones and no one else has built enough steam to justify a title shot. Regardless, this is an interesting fight to a point.

We have two fighters who fight on timing and distance. the Jon Jones puzzle has yet to be solved while the Machida myth was smashed by Shogun. Machida loves to dash in and out and counter his opponent. He controls the Octagon like few others and is probably the most difficult to land a solid strike against. Aside from his fights with Shogun, who showed extreme patience and discipline, the Machida style is still not an easily solved puzzle. The problem is that Jon Jones style is similar in that he uses his length to dictate how and where the fight will take place. He shows something something new and innovative each time out. He used kicks to the thigh as a jab against Rampage Jackson to keep him at the necessary distance. He is almost impossible to take down and how will Machida keep him down if he gets him on the ground? The largest obstacle Jones' opponents face is not just Jon Jones' size and reach but that he knows how to use it. Many fighters have enjoyed such freakish advanteages over opponents. Tim Sylvia, Corey Hill, Semmy Schilt, to name a few. None of them can use their attribute to the advantage Jon Jones does. So how can Machida defeat Jon Jones? On paper, there are not many ways for Lyoto Machida to succeed. But as they say, that's why they play the game. Jon jones' chin has yet to be tested. Fans have yet to see him overcome adversity. Machida has a style and physical attributes to give Jones trouble and 6 oz gloves are the great equalizer.

Unfortunately for Machida, Jon Jones has a high Octagon IQ and comes from Greg Jackson's camp. Jon Jones will be prepared. I expect Jones to take Machida down early and beat him up there like he has many other opponents. Machida has not spent much time on his back and I don't see him just standing up against Jones. Expect the elbows to rain on Machida before his father mercifully throws in the towel for a second or third round stoppage.

My fear is that with both fighters playing the distance game, neither will exchange until the time is right and we'll have ourselves another Severn/Shamrock. With Jackson camp's tendency to play it safe this is a possibility, but not likely. Jon Jones has become more vocal and confident of late and he better come in ready to back all that up because one straight left from Machida can bring his ego down real quick.

Dos Santos puts the Champ Velazquez to Sleep and Ben "Smooth" Henderson Outhustles Clay Guida

Much has been made of Cain Velazquez' decision to stand against Junior dos Santos. He should have gone for the takedown, pushed him against the fence, dirty boxed, etc. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I don't know what the strategy was for Cain Velazquez. He has stated he did not follow the gameplan. Dana White was livid after the fight, stating that dos Santos tires late in fights. No one knows what would have happened if Junior dos Santos had not landed so early in the fight. What we do know is this : 1)dos Santos has and will have the heaviest, most talented hands in the Heavyweight division and anyone is a fool to intentionally stand against him. 2)Many fans, analysts and especially Cain himself had been enamored with his progress in stand up especially with the results against Brock Lesnar. But to believe that your stand up after a few years (or months) of training can be as good as someone's who has trained his entire life is ridiculous. If CroCop trained the rest of his life in wrestling, he could never out-wrestle someone like Velazquez or Lesnar. He may get the upper hand briefly, but ultimately he will lose a wrestling battle. It is very similar to Gray Maynard's success against Frankie Edgar. Gray hurt him badly twice, but in the end superior stand up, footwork and all-around MMA won the fight for Frankie Edgar. So while he is criticized by choosing to stand, let's remember all the praise he received for his 'beautiful' combinations and progress in his fights against Big Nog and Lesnar. 3)Regardless if Cain had chosen to go for a take down or the clinch, every round would start on the feet and dos Santos has shown against other grapplers to have the ability to stay on his feet or get to his feet quickly. I was wrong in my prediction that Cain Velazquez would have been able to ground and wear out Junior dos Santos. Does that make Cain a chump and Junior dos Santos unbeatable? Absolutely not. Everyone has holes, not everyone allows those to be exposed. Cain had been rocked before, does he have a glass chin? We'll find out in his next outing against a striker. Can Junior dos Santos keep every fight standing long enough to wear out or KO his opponent? So far the answer is a resounding yes. Whether it's Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem to get the next crack at the champ, both will need to sharpen every aspect of their game to stand a chance against 'Cigano.'

The biggest and best surprise of the historic night was "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Not only did he dominate Clay Guida, he made the fight exciting and went to win every minute of the fight. For anyone who believes the WEC lightweights did not belong in the UFC, take a look at Henderson's fights. He is exciting, athletic, inventive, dynamic and most of all lays it on the line every time. His scheduled match against Frankie Edgar has fight of the decade written all over it. For the first time in a while the champ will face someone with the same mobility, skill set and cardio as he does. He will not have an easy upper hand in the later rounds as he has become accustomed. We are all in for a special night when Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson meet in the Octagon.

Can Cain Velazquez overcome Junior Dos Santos on the UFCs biggest night?

On November 12th Cain Velazquez puts his heavyweight belt on the line for the first time against Junior Dos Santos live and free on FOX. While most of the talk surrounds this being the UFCs first opportunity on broadcast television and what effect that will have on the company's bottom line, MMA fans are more interested in who will triumph in MMA's biggest heavyweight match-up since Fedor-CroCop.

Cain Velazquez has been almost unstoppable in his short 9 fight career. Tho only man to go the distance against him is the steady Cheick Kongo. Kongo is also the only man to show even a glimpse of weakness in Cain, rocking him early in that fight. But like all great gladiators, Velazquez rose to the challenge and controlled the rest of the fight. He has not been challenged by anyone else in his career. Even in his fight against Brock Lesnar, Cain showed excellent wrestling, octagon control and   veteran resilience to quickly turn the tide against the behemoth and earn a TKO heavyweight title victory. My hesitation in jumping on the brown pride bandwagon is purely aesthetic. I just wish he had been challenged more in his career. As a fan, I like to see what a fighter's made of when things are not going his way. Much like Georges St. Pierre folded (and will again the next time) when Matt Serra rocked him. but when you're as gifted and skilled as Cain Velazquez is, those rocky moments are and far between. Having a wrestling base is his biggest asset. He can control where the fight takes place. He quickly stood after a take down against Lesnar and took him down also. the one negative in his game is that he is not a natural striker and because of his success on the feet, he may believe he can bang against Junior dos Santos. Yes he knocked out Minotauro and TKO'd Brock Lesnar but Junior dos Santos will be the most complete stand-up fighter Cain has faced. Probably the best in the heavyweight division.
Junior dos Santos conversely has faced slightly higher pedigree fighters but also has yet to truly be tested. his last two fights have gone the distance but the outcome was never in doubt. In the UFC he has yet to be rocked or even in jeopardy of a submission. He has KO'd or submitted 5 of his 7 UFC opponents including the likes of Gonzaga, Werdun, Yvel and CroCop. He dismantled Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He has excellent take down defense, superior ground skills, excellent footwork, top notch cardio and the best hands in the heavyweight division. Of course, Cain Velazquez' take downs are superior to those of Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin so his take down defense will be tested. The question is, how can he beat Cain? His best shot is on the feet. Junior has shown exceptional ability to keep a fight standing via volume or superior footwork. But Cain has show similar ability. We have yet to see dos Santos on his back for a prolonged period of time and my money is on Cain Velazquez achieving that. Will Junior dos Santos wilt or rise? I feel Junior dos Santos will rise to the challenge but not enough for a victory. 
Cain Velazquez will hold his own on the feet then take the fight to the ground when the timing is right to win the early rounds. As the fight wears on Cain will use his endless cardio tank to batter and bloody Junior dos Santos with a vicious ground and pound. dos santos will fight back valiantly and show that he is worthy of a rematch but not enough to wrest the championship gold from Cain Velazquez.