UFC ON FOX : Rockhold vs. Machida

UFC on FOX was put together on the premise that the victors would provide either a clear cut #1 contender for the UFC Middleweight belt or at least which two contenders would fight to deduce the #1 contender. With Yoel Romero dropping out due to injury, Ronaldo Souza will have to deliver a highlight performance to stay in the running for that spot because Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is as fan friendly and PPV worthy as any matchup the UFC has put on.

At middleweight, Lyoto Machida (+125) is 3 - 1 with his only loss a very hard fought decision one against unbeaten champ Chris Weidman. With the exception of his quick KO loss in his rematch against Shogun Rua, it's difficult to say Machida has ever looked bad against anyone. Machida presents a difficult puzzle for anyone at anytime. He is swift, moves in and out, world class footwork and striking. There are no two Lyoto Machidas. One can not prepare for what he brings into the Octagon. The knock on Machida though has been he tends to react not act. He Waits on his opponent. If he can not entice his foe to act recklessly or engage, Lyoto at times seems to stand still. This holds true especially for high level opponents. But if he can get his opponent's distance and timing and/or he does not fear them, his results have been above par. Machida strikes from unexpected places and angles. He can put together multiple strikes and not just from his hands. He is equally adapt at knees and kicks. He has some of the best takedown defense in MMA but will use his Judo to take his foe down at his will.

In Luke Rockhold (-145) Machida will face for maybe the first time someone with almost the same skill set if not better. Just like Machida, it's impossible to find a match in which Rockhold looked bad. His loss against Vitor Belfort was short and he simply fought a legend in one of his many primes who unleashed a kick few could have avoided on that night. Aside from that moment, Rockhold has looked every bit the All American he is billed as. He has seemed a bit stiff at times but in his last few fights more fluidity has showed. He possess a powerful and aggressive stand up game. Rockhold usually strikes with discipline and fire. I have yet to see him back down from a fire fight, but he does not throw caution to the wind. More importantly, he possesses the ability to control where the fight will take place. Rockhold has finished many of his opponents via submission so going to the ground with him would not necessarily equal a win. He is very strong which has been a struggle for Machida in the past. Rockhold did defeat Jacare but that was a much different Jacare we are witnessing today. In fact, Jacare should thank Rockhold for the fighter he has become. That loss taught Jacare he needed to improve all aspects of his game, not just the ground game. In total, Rockhold's good locks are just a front for a fighter on the verge of a title shot.

Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em fight with Rockhold as a slight favorite. I tend to think that Rockhold's aggressive style is tailor made for Machida. Allowing Machida to find openings and holes. Yet, the agressive style may also make Machida clam up and become strictly defensive. The fight should remain on the feet throughout. Meaning the aggressor will probably win. Rockhold was caught once. Belfort posterized him. But he didn't come back gun shy or timid. He came back determined. Machida has fought the toughest in the UFC. This is nothing new for him. But at the top of the top, he has fallen short more often than not. I give this one to Rockhold via unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight.

The rest of my picks:

Jacare KO's Camozzi

Swanson decisons Holloway

VanZant decisions Herrig

Might also like:
UFC Fight Night : CroCop vs Gonzaga 2

Dos Santos puts the Champ Velazquez to Sleep and Ben "Smooth" Henderson Outhustles Clay Guida

Much has been made of Cain Velazquez' decision to stand against Junior dos Santos. He should have gone for the takedown, pushed him against the fence, dirty boxed, etc. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I don't know what the strategy was for Cain Velazquez. He has stated he did not follow the gameplan. Dana White was livid after the fight, stating that dos Santos tires late in fights. No one knows what would have happened if Junior dos Santos had not landed so early in the fight. What we do know is this : 1)dos Santos has and will have the heaviest, most talented hands in the Heavyweight division and anyone is a fool to intentionally stand against him. 2)Many fans, analysts and especially Cain himself had been enamored with his progress in stand up especially with the results against Brock Lesnar. But to believe that your stand up after a few years (or months) of training can be as good as someone's who has trained his entire life is ridiculous. If CroCop trained the rest of his life in wrestling, he could never out-wrestle someone like Velazquez or Lesnar. He may get the upper hand briefly, but ultimately he will lose a wrestling battle. It is very similar to Gray Maynard's success against Frankie Edgar. Gray hurt him badly twice, but in the end superior stand up, footwork and all-around MMA won the fight for Frankie Edgar. So while he is criticized by choosing to stand, let's remember all the praise he received for his 'beautiful' combinations and progress in his fights against Big Nog and Lesnar. 3)Regardless if Cain had chosen to go for a take down or the clinch, every round would start on the feet and dos Santos has shown against other grapplers to have the ability to stay on his feet or get to his feet quickly. I was wrong in my prediction that Cain Velazquez would have been able to ground and wear out Junior dos Santos. Does that make Cain a chump and Junior dos Santos unbeatable? Absolutely not. Everyone has holes, not everyone allows those to be exposed. Cain had been rocked before, does he have a glass chin? We'll find out in his next outing against a striker. Can Junior dos Santos keep every fight standing long enough to wear out or KO his opponent? So far the answer is a resounding yes. Whether it's Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem to get the next crack at the champ, both will need to sharpen every aspect of their game to stand a chance against 'Cigano.'

The biggest and best surprise of the historic night was "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Not only did he dominate Clay Guida, he made the fight exciting and went to win every minute of the fight. For anyone who believes the WEC lightweights did not belong in the UFC, take a look at Henderson's fights. He is exciting, athletic, inventive, dynamic and most of all lays it on the line every time. His scheduled match against Frankie Edgar has fight of the decade written all over it. For the first time in a while the champ will face someone with the same mobility, skill set and cardio as he does. He will not have an easy upper hand in the later rounds as he has become accustomed. We are all in for a special night when Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson meet in the Octagon.