UFC 186 : Johnson vs Horiguchi

It seems Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson reluctantly plays the UFC's version of Rodney Dangerfield. He gets no respect. Since his loss to then champion Dominick Cruz at 135 pounds, Mighty Mouse dropped to flyweight and cleaned out a (not his fault) weak division. Unbeaten for 8 fights (including 1 draw against Ian McCall) he has no star power to fare against. Critics said well he only wins by decision. So he finished 3 of his last 4 foes. The UFC's biggest problem with him is finding not only suitable challengers, but also challengers the fans want to see Mighty Mouse against. Kyoji Horiguchi is certainly talented, if untested, enough to fight for the flyweight belt.The problem is no one can say his name and no one cares.

Demetrious Johnson (-900) should not be blamed for either his talent or lack of talent in his division. His speed, technique, discipline, and physical talent are perfect for the flyweight division. He arrived a step ahead. Prepared and ready. Spending years at higher weight classes against fighters not as talented but bigger and stronger. Now, on even ground he runs circles around them. Literally. Mighty Mouse's biggest asset is the ability to dictate how, when and where the fight takes place. This is not a simple matter of he can stay standing or get the takedown. No sir. This is high level only the little guy can do it Octagon control. He has lateral movement, can dart in and out, strike from far away or close by. Try and take him down. If he stays still for more than a millisecond. Since his move to flyweight all I have seen Johnson do is use the absolute best footwork and movement in the fight business to frustrate and beat every opponent. Can he finish? He may not push it or force mistakes but if he hurts his opponent? He'll either be out cold or in some submission in a matter of half seconds. And Mighty Mouse making a mistake? Sure. Hold your breath on that. Be the blue guy in the corner waiting on that.

Kyoji Horiguchi (600) is 15 - 1, 4 and 0 in the UFC. Japanese. Quick. With power. Unpredictable, like every Japanese fighter. To say he is undeserving of the title shot is an insult to him and his achievements. Japanese fighters have yet to hold UFC gold. Don't let that fool you into thinking Horiguchi is subpar. No one is 15 - 1 and on a 9 fight win streak without some sort of talent, drive and grit. American fans will say, "well who has he beat?" Come on, how many flyweights could we name? We really don't know the quality of his opponents. But he's beat all but one. His last showing against Louis Gaudinot didn't answer many questions. Gaudinot is on a losing streak himself. He's also the only man to finish John Lineker in the UFC, Dana White's chosen NBT. The fight was competitive, back and forth between Horiguchi and Gaudinot. And that's the problem. No knock on Gaudinot but being competitive against him is your best, take your paycheck and go home come Main Event time. It took time for Horiguchi to find himself in that time. At times Gaudinot outworked and outhustled him. You can bank that time to adjust will not be granted to him by Johnson. If he fights that way against Mighty Mouse it'll be nite nite Kyoji. He must use his own speed and movement to at least stay within range. Horiguchi's key will be his unpredictability. He's not unorthodox at all. Opponents just have a hard time readig when or from where he will strike. Maybe he can catch Mighty Mouse.

Kyoji Horiguchi tends to set and put his all into his strikes. And that will be his undoing. That half second or whatever it takes for him to set Johnson will see it and either attack or disappear. We'll spend an evening watching attacking ghosts. Demetrious Johnson is simply at another level much like Mayweather or a 2008 Anderson Silva. Simply unmatched. I'll take Mighty Mouse by 4th round submission. 

My Other Picks:

Bisping decisions Dolloway in a battle of most obnoxious Middleweights

Maldonado decisions Jackson in a huge upset.

Makdessi KO's Campbell

Almeida Ko's Jabouin

Cote decisions Riggs

Kaufman Ko's Davis

   

UFC ON FOX : Rockhold vs. Machida

UFC on FOX was put together on the premise that the victors would provide either a clear cut #1 contender for the UFC Middleweight belt or at least which two contenders would fight to deduce the #1 contender. With Yoel Romero dropping out due to injury, Ronaldo Souza will have to deliver a highlight performance to stay in the running for that spot because Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is as fan friendly and PPV worthy as any matchup the UFC has put on.

At middleweight, Lyoto Machida (+125) is 3 - 1 with his only loss a very hard fought decision one against unbeaten champ Chris Weidman. With the exception of his quick KO loss in his rematch against Shogun Rua, it's difficult to say Machida has ever looked bad against anyone. Machida presents a difficult puzzle for anyone at anytime. He is swift, moves in and out, world class footwork and striking. There are no two Lyoto Machidas. One can not prepare for what he brings into the Octagon. The knock on Machida though has been he tends to react not act. He Waits on his opponent. If he can not entice his foe to act recklessly or engage, Lyoto at times seems to stand still. This holds true especially for high level opponents. But if he can get his opponent's distance and timing and/or he does not fear them, his results have been above par. Machida strikes from unexpected places and angles. He can put together multiple strikes and not just from his hands. He is equally adapt at knees and kicks. He has some of the best takedown defense in MMA but will use his Judo to take his foe down at his will.

In Luke Rockhold (-145) Machida will face for maybe the first time someone with almost the same skill set if not better. Just like Machida, it's impossible to find a match in which Rockhold looked bad. His loss against Vitor Belfort was short and he simply fought a legend in one of his many primes who unleashed a kick few could have avoided on that night. Aside from that moment, Rockhold has looked every bit the All American he is billed as. He has seemed a bit stiff at times but in his last few fights more fluidity has showed. He possess a powerful and aggressive stand up game. Rockhold usually strikes with discipline and fire. I have yet to see him back down from a fire fight, but he does not throw caution to the wind. More importantly, he possesses the ability to control where the fight will take place. Rockhold has finished many of his opponents via submission so going to the ground with him would not necessarily equal a win. He is very strong which has been a struggle for Machida in the past. Rockhold did defeat Jacare but that was a much different Jacare we are witnessing today. In fact, Jacare should thank Rockhold for the fighter he has become. That loss taught Jacare he needed to improve all aspects of his game, not just the ground game. In total, Rockhold's good locks are just a front for a fighter on the verge of a title shot.

Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em fight with Rockhold as a slight favorite. I tend to think that Rockhold's aggressive style is tailor made for Machida. Allowing Machida to find openings and holes. Yet, the agressive style may also make Machida clam up and become strictly defensive. The fight should remain on the feet throughout. Meaning the aggressor will probably win. Rockhold was caught once. Belfort posterized him. But he didn't come back gun shy or timid. He came back determined. Machida has fought the toughest in the UFC. This is nothing new for him. But at the top of the top, he has fallen short more often than not. I give this one to Rockhold via unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight.

The rest of my picks:

Jacare KO's Camozzi

Swanson decisons Holloway

VanZant decisions Herrig

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UFC Fight Night : CroCop vs Gonzaga 2

UFC Fight Night : Gonzaga vs. CroCop 2

Eight years after Gabriel Gonzaga (-175) immortalized himself and posterized Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic (135) by turning the tables on the head kick king of MMA, the rematch is set. UFC brass setting the rematch in Krakow, Poland is a huge statement on the draw power of the main event combatants. Nonetheless a fight night we have, an interesting one at that.

Right kick hospital. Left kick cemetery. That was the pre-2007 CroCop. At their first meeting, CroCop was coming off his (anyone's really) biggest achievement. The previous year CroCop won the Pride Absolute Grand Prix defeating Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on the same night. Ask any champion in any organization to do that now. He had finally arrived in the UFC and looked sluggish in his first outing, but won. The match against Gonzaga was simply a rest stop on his way to a title bout against Randy Couture. Gonzaga ended those hopes and changed CroCop's career with a high kick at the end of round 1. Does CroCop have an answer or something different now?

Since his match against Fedor Emelianenko foes became aware that CroCop didn't do well when not allowed to set. Fedor kept him retreating, never allowing him to unleash his patented offense. CroCop does not deal well with opponent's who either don't fear him or don't fall at his strikes. He has not only become gun shy due to multiple recent KO and TKO losses and his 40 year old body does not function the way it used to. CroCop still has some power left in him, it's a matter of his being able and willing to unleash it. He can no longer dart in and out and sprawl the way he used to and has always had a tendency to keep his hands low. See the Gonzaga KO. Is CroCop a shot fighter? Hard to tell. But the physical attributes that placed him at the top of the heavyweight division and masked some of his shortfalls are no longer there. He is still not someone you want to stand and bang with, taking chances. On the feet is his best chance at victory, via multitude of strikes.

Gabriel Gonzaga conversely has deteriorated in the years since the first fight, but remains the better all around fighter. I do not believe in luck in sports, especially MMA. Athletes are highly trained, disciplined and prepared. I do believe that 98 out of 100 times Gonzaga does not land that kick on CroCop. Before that the fight was fairly even with Gonzaga spending some time on top. But Gonzaga did land that kick. Since that fight Gonzaga has been Ko'd or TKO'd 6 times out of 8 losses. Like many grapplers who find success in MMA using 4oz gloves, Gonzaga has fallen in love with his striking, believing he can stand with anyone if he did against CroCop. Maybe a seventh knockout loss will convince him otherwise. Gonzaga is top heavyweight grappler and submission specialist. He needs to focus on takedowns and ground control to win this fight. If he does so, he could easily win by submission or earn a late stoppage. CroCop will have no answer for his ground and pound. But if Gonzaga decides he can KO CroCop again, he is flirting with disaster. He does not have the footwork or strike savvy to back up CroCop, especially in round one with a fresh CroCop. And if CroCop can set and unload, right kick hospital, left kick cemetery.

In a pick 'em fight, one would expect Gonzaga to play it safe, especially with his UFC career most likely on the line. But Gonzaga has repeatedly and disastrously shown he believes he can stand with anyone. He forsakes his takedowns and gets lulled into a stand up battle he can't win. He does not posses a weak chin. In the heavyweight division, any punch or kick is devastating. The worst thing that will happen in this fight is CroCop landing a straight left or a high kick and Gonzaga eating it. He will believe he can take the strikes and remain standing, losing the fight. Fighting on as close to home turf as possible for CroCop, I expect him to step up and win this fight via unanimous decision.

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UFC 185: Pettis vs DosAnjos 

UFC FIGHT NIGHT : Maia vs. LaFlare

When the scheduled main event of Raphael Assuncao and Urijah Faber was scrapped due to injury fans were left with Demian Maia against Ryan LaFlare. The matchup is very intriguing pitting an undefeated rising fighter looking to make a name against maybe the best pure submission artist in MMA looking to put himself back in the title picture. But what it gains in intrigue it loses in star power. Nonetheless Maia vs. LaFlare could play a substantial role in the future of the UFC's welterweight division.

For a while now I've believed the UFC does no favors for up and coming fighters pitting them against veterans that can and many times do derail their careers. Instead of building someone, they feed them to the lions in a sink or swim lesson. Pitting the rising Erick Silva against Jon Fitch. Recently pitting Myles Jury against murderer Donald Cerrone. They normally don't do their young stars many favors. While Demian Maia is certainly no favor, Maia is tailored for the rising LaFlare.

Demian Maia is capable of controlling and submitting almost anyone at any time. He's submitted Rick Story and Chael Sonnen. If he can get the takedown or reach the hips, he is excellent at controlling and finishing the takedown as well as securing the submission once there. Pitting him on his back is also not the best idea, just ask Chael Sonnen. But he has always had problems against fighters with mobility and striking skills. Against Rory McDonald, Maia looked like an amateur fighting in slow motion. He shot for takedowns from too far away and at an elementary speed. He was never in the fight against McDonald. In fact, a fighter with more killer instinct would have probably finished Maia. Maia also struggles against bigger, stronger MMA adapt wrestlers. Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz both controlled and beat him en route to decision victories.

In Ryan LaFlare, Maia faces a very, very good wrestler with very good mobility and striking skills at a higher level than his own. If there was a prototypical fighter Maia would not want to fight, he would look a lot like LaFlare. LaFlare used his footwork and sharper striking in his last match against John Howard on his way to a decision. While LaFlare has not KO'd anyone since 2010 and fought to a decision in his last three bouts, his striking is adequate and against Maia that's all he needs. LaFlare has the skills to keep the fight standing if he wishes or to repeatedly take Maia down. I would not recommend he stay there though as that would be disaster. The other thing LaFlare has going for him is a 5 round fight. Maia is 37, while LaFlare is 31. The pace that LaFlare will impose upon Maia will wear the veteran down in the later rounds making the chances of a late submission almost null as in his bout against Rory McDonald. 

I expect LaFlare to impose his gameplan against Maia. Move around the Octagon peppering Maia with sharp strikes and utilizing the takedown at will. Either ending the fight via strikes in the later rounds or earning a unanimous decision against
Maia, sending a message to the rest of the UFC's welterweight division.

UFC 185: Pettis Vs. Dos Anjos

UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Pettis (-430) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+435)

Interesting match-up in the main event. Since his uneventful defeat at the lay and pray of Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis has looked every bit of the dynamic athlete he promised to be in his WEC days. After proving he could wrestle against Jeremy Stephens, Pettis has finished his last four opponents including former UFC/WEC champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, both had never been finished at that point. He has done it not only with athleticism but a very high skill level as well as cage IQ. He strikes unexpectedly and does not lose an opening. Against Melendez, some may argue Pettis lost the first round. Melendez rushed and pressured him against the cage and controlled the round, not giving Pettis the space he loves to perform. In round two, Melendez left an opening, was rocked by a strike and quickly finished in a classic guillotine choke. Small mistakes and failure to impose their game plan will cost any Pettis opponent dearly.

In Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis finds an opponent almost as gifted and probably larger and stronger. Dos Anjos is riding his own 3 fight win streak finishing 2 of those including the first ever knockout of Ben Henderson. He is an exceptional Thai kickboxer with vicious and accurate kicks. Beating Donald Cerrone goes a long way towards opening people's eyes to your stand up skills. Yet in 30 professional bouts he has only registered 8 KO's. He does have 11 submissions on his resume but hasn't submitted an opponent since 2012. He does have the physical attributes to hang with Pettis but for how long? Dos Anjos has shown the ability to employ a game plan, follow it to a decision victory. But Pettis is not run of the mill opponent.

One of the rarely discussed aspects of the fight game is footwork. But I emphasize it tremendously. A few MMA fighters possess next level footwork. Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva. Anthony Pettis is nearing that level. If a fighter can control where the fight takes place he controls the outcome. That's where Pettis has the largest advantage. Dos Anjos is a solid wrestler and BJJ practioner but Pettis learned plenty in his loss to Clay Guida. since that loss, his takedown defense has been exceptional. Assuming Pettis can stuff the takedown, his fluid mobility on the feet will confound dos Anjos and keep him guessing. While dos Anjos is solid in the kicking game, Pettis is creative and deadly. He strikes from anywhere, anytime with accuracy and power. While his opponent is trying to time a leg kick Pettis is busy doing Crescent kicks or wheel kicks or some new invention we've never seen. He is a showman with victory on his mind. While dos Anjos is not merely another opponent, he will face the same fate as the previous contenders. I look for 2nd round finish via ref stoppage by strikes. Pettis will catch dos Anjos in a scramble and finish him brilliantly.

Leben and Munoz Clash in Historic 5 Round Tussle

Chris Leben and Mark Munoz face off in the main event of UFC 138 on tape delay on SpikeTV from England. Aside from pitting two evenly matched middleweights, this match is historic because it will be the first non-title five round MMA bout. Will it go the five rounds? Probably not. Mark Munoz is as good a wrestler in MMA and training with Chael Sonnen doesn't hurt either. He has the ability to take down Leben repeatedly and keep him there. If Maia couldn't submit Munoz, I doubt Chris Leben can pull off the submission. Mark Munoz learned alot after Matt Hamill head kicked him into unconsciousness. Don't strike with a striker, secure the win first. He's gone 6-1 since, his only loss coming via decision against another superb wrestler, Yushin Okami. What Chris Leben brings is a never say die attitude and the ability to entice almost anyone into brawl they can not win. Anytime you think he's out, when you think he's hurt, that's when he as at his most dangerous. His achilles is lack of defense and limited skills. Michael Bisping was able to dance around the Octagon and avoid solid strikes and Leben is susceptible to takedowns and ground and pound. In his favor is that every round starts on the feet. If he can entice Mark Munoz into a stand up battle or get Munoz to wear himself out as he did against Akiyama, he has a chance. While Chris Leben's cardio has never been up to par, he has shown to have more heart when both combatants are low on fuel. No matter, I see Mark Munoz pulling out a bloody, tough decision victory against a gutsy Leben.

The only other fight on the card that excites me is Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi. I was never one sold on Alves. I never really understood his builup to welterweight title contender. Yes, he showed exciting stand up skills but also many holes on the feet and more on the ground. He tends to get sloppy on the feet with  looping punches and little footwork. He has also been outclassed and submitted on the ground by anyone with any semblance of ground skills. And he has trouble making weight. his biggest victory, a TKO of Matt Hughes came after he grossly missed weight and probably showed up on fight night at least 10 pounds heavier than Hughes. Nonetheless, the firepower in his hands makes him a very dangerous foe for anyone. Papy Abedi shows up with a perfect 8-0 record filled with KO and submission victories. But has fought mainly C level competition. Will he fold under the bright lights pressure of a UFC debut? He is fighting on his side of the pond and will probably have friends and family in the audience cheering him on. If his standup is half as good as it is advertised, he may have what it takes to wear down Alves. But I doubt it. Thiago Alves can be outclassed and decisioned but by top level grapplers, not mid-level strikers. Alves has rarely been in trouble on the feet, most, as champion St. Pierre did, rather ground him and take their chances there. Choosing to stand against "The Pitbull" will be Papy's undoing. Expect an early second round highlight KO from Alves.

The rest of the card :

Renan "Barao" submits Brad Pickett

Terry Etim crushes Eddie Faalolotto

Cyrille Diabate earns a tough decision against Anthony Perosh

Jason Young hands Omigawa his walking papers