Chris Leben and Mark Munoz face off in the main event of UFC 138 on tape delay on SpikeTV from England. Aside from pitting two evenly matched middleweights, this match is historic because it will be the first non-title five round MMA bout. Will it go the five rounds? Probably not. Mark Munoz is as good a wrestler in MMA and training with Chael Sonnen doesn't hurt either. He has the ability to take down Leben repeatedly and keep him there. If Maia couldn't submit Munoz, I doubt Chris Leben can pull off the submission. Mark Munoz learned alot after Matt Hamill head kicked him into unconsciousness. Don't strike with a striker, secure the win first. He's gone 6-1 since, his only loss coming via decision against another superb wrestler, Yushin Okami. What Chris Leben brings is a never say die attitude and the ability to entice almost anyone into brawl they can not win. Anytime you think he's out, when you think he's hurt, that's when he as at his most dangerous. His achilles is lack of defense and limited skills. Michael Bisping was able to dance around the Octagon and avoid solid strikes and Leben is susceptible to takedowns and ground and pound. In his favor is that every round starts on the feet. If he can entice Mark Munoz into a stand up battle or get Munoz to wear himself out as he did against Akiyama, he has a chance. While Chris Leben's cardio has never been up to par, he has shown to have more heart when both combatants are low on fuel. No matter, I see Mark Munoz pulling out a bloody, tough decision victory against a gutsy Leben.
The only other fight on the card that excites me is Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi. I was never one sold on Alves. I never really understood his builup to welterweight title contender. Yes, he showed exciting stand up skills but also many holes on the feet and more on the ground. He tends to get sloppy on the feet with looping punches and little footwork. He has also been outclassed and submitted on the ground by anyone with any semblance of ground skills. And he has trouble making weight. his biggest victory, a TKO of Matt Hughes came after he grossly missed weight and probably showed up on fight night at least 10 pounds heavier than Hughes. Nonetheless, the firepower in his hands makes him a very dangerous foe for anyone. Papy Abedi shows up with a perfect 8-0 record filled with KO and submission victories. But has fought mainly C level competition. Will he fold under the bright lights pressure of a UFC debut? He is fighting on his side of the pond and will probably have friends and family in the audience cheering him on. If his standup is half as good as it is advertised, he may have what it takes to wear down Alves. But I doubt it. Thiago Alves can be outclassed and decisioned but by top level grapplers, not mid-level strikers. Alves has rarely been in trouble on the feet, most, as champion St. Pierre did, rather ground him and take their chances there. Choosing to stand against "The Pitbull" will be Papy's undoing. Expect an early second round highlight KO from Alves.
The rest of the card :
Renan "Barao" submits Brad Pickett
Terry Etim crushes Eddie Faalolotto
Cyrille Diabate earns a tough decision against Anthony Perosh
Jason Young hands Omigawa his walking papers
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