UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Mendes vs. Lamas

If Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor had chosen some other sport, we would all be talking about the championship bout this weekend between Chad Mendes (-425)and Ricardo Lamas (+320). But Aldo and McGregor didn't and they are currently and probably the best media tour the UFC has ever seen completely erasing the rest of the featherweight division from the minds of fans. Nonetheless fans will be treated to a pay-per-view worthy main event this Saturday April 4th.

In Chad Mendes we have probably the best wrestler in the lighter weight classes not named Frankie Edgar. Strong, quick with tremendous doubles. At the beginning of his career he set up the takedown with nice punches and combinations. Now, like so many, he's realized he has bricks in his hands and just knocks his opponent out skipping the takedowns. And who could blame him given his recent KO ratio. He has a chin along with movement and setups that allow him to stand with little danger, unless his opponent is Jose Aldo. After his last performance against the champ, Mendes gained more fans, more respect and more grit than in any other fight or victory of his career. He also showed that to beat him you're gonna have to go through Hell to do it.

In Ricardo Lamas we have some similarities. Good wrestler, but not elite. Good striker but not one punch KO power or exceptional footwork. Good chin but Lamas has been KO'd twice. Worse of all, when Lamas faced Jose Aldo, I felt he did not give his best performance. Lamas preferred to say he went five rounds with the champ than to go all out and let the chips fall where they may a la Chad Mendes. But who can blame him? I'd love to say I went five hard rounds with Jose Aldo and lived. Regardless, Lamas' best chance at victory is in getting Chad Mendes on his back and delivering his vicious elbows and strikes.

I see Ricardo Lamas having a very difficult time with Chad Mendes and going into cruise mode to survive, which he may not. Chad Mendes has confidence for ages and his loss to Jose Aldo did nothing to deter that, may have even increased. He took everything Aldo had and struck right back. Turned the tide even. Lamas will stay in the fight, but unless a fire has been lit in him, once he realizes he's facing a much better fighter he will crawl into the same shell he did against Jose Aldo. I take Chad Mendes by grinding decision.

You might also like:
UFC Fight Night Fairfax : Masvidal vs. Iaquinta

UFC FIGHT NIGHT : Maia vs. LaFlare

When the scheduled main event of Raphael Assuncao and Urijah Faber was scrapped due to injury fans were left with Demian Maia against Ryan LaFlare. The matchup is very intriguing pitting an undefeated rising fighter looking to make a name against maybe the best pure submission artist in MMA looking to put himself back in the title picture. But what it gains in intrigue it loses in star power. Nonetheless Maia vs. LaFlare could play a substantial role in the future of the UFC's welterweight division.

For a while now I've believed the UFC does no favors for up and coming fighters pitting them against veterans that can and many times do derail their careers. Instead of building someone, they feed them to the lions in a sink or swim lesson. Pitting the rising Erick Silva against Jon Fitch. Recently pitting Myles Jury against murderer Donald Cerrone. They normally don't do their young stars many favors. While Demian Maia is certainly no favor, Maia is tailored for the rising LaFlare.

Demian Maia is capable of controlling and submitting almost anyone at any time. He's submitted Rick Story and Chael Sonnen. If he can get the takedown or reach the hips, he is excellent at controlling and finishing the takedown as well as securing the submission once there. Pitting him on his back is also not the best idea, just ask Chael Sonnen. But he has always had problems against fighters with mobility and striking skills. Against Rory McDonald, Maia looked like an amateur fighting in slow motion. He shot for takedowns from too far away and at an elementary speed. He was never in the fight against McDonald. In fact, a fighter with more killer instinct would have probably finished Maia. Maia also struggles against bigger, stronger MMA adapt wrestlers. Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz both controlled and beat him en route to decision victories.

In Ryan LaFlare, Maia faces a very, very good wrestler with very good mobility and striking skills at a higher level than his own. If there was a prototypical fighter Maia would not want to fight, he would look a lot like LaFlare. LaFlare used his footwork and sharper striking in his last match against John Howard on his way to a decision. While LaFlare has not KO'd anyone since 2010 and fought to a decision in his last three bouts, his striking is adequate and against Maia that's all he needs. LaFlare has the skills to keep the fight standing if he wishes or to repeatedly take Maia down. I would not recommend he stay there though as that would be disaster. The other thing LaFlare has going for him is a 5 round fight. Maia is 37, while LaFlare is 31. The pace that LaFlare will impose upon Maia will wear the veteran down in the later rounds making the chances of a late submission almost null as in his bout against Rory McDonald. 

I expect LaFlare to impose his gameplan against Maia. Move around the Octagon peppering Maia with sharp strikes and utilizing the takedown at will. Either ending the fight via strikes in the later rounds or earning a unanimous decision against
Maia, sending a message to the rest of the UFC's welterweight division.