UFC 139 Features 6 Ex-champions Highlighted by Dan Henderson Slugging Against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

At UFC 139 MMA fan's get a fight many hoped had occurred five or six years ago. Dan Henderson against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. There was a time in the days of Pride that this match-up would have been the talk of the entire MMA world. Even now fans are still getting two of the best they've ever seen clash while still competing at relatively high levels. Both have been knocked down a bit but anyone who counts either of these men is making a huge mistake.

Dan Henderson brings with him one of the best resumes in MMA. He has fought a who's who of opponents and vanquished most. Of his eight losses, three were submissions to Anderson Silva and one to each of the Nogueira brothers. The rest are decisions and he has never been knocked out. The put to sleep the incomparable Fedor Emelianenko in under one round. He has also knocked out Wanderlai Silva, Bisping, Cavalcante, Sobral, Bustamante and Renzo Gracie. More importantly, Dan Henderson brings with him what has now become the blueprint for success in MMA. He is really, really good at one thing and can carry his own at everything else. The one thing he is really good at is wrestling and clinch work and has the ability to control how and where the match will take place. It doesn't hurt that he probably has the hardest right hand in the business and can turn out the lights with one shot and has a chin that has taken shots from the best and come out grinning. Dan Henderson, even at 41, is not easy fight for anyone.

On the other side of the Octagon is the one time 'wunderkind' of Pride, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Until his shocking loss to Forrest Griffin upon his arrival in the UFC, Shogun was thought of as the future of MMA, the Jon Jones of his time.He held KO victories over current heavyweight phenom Alistair Overeem, Quentin Jackson, and Ricardo Arona. But Shogun is only 4-3 in his UFC tenure although three of those matches were for the championship belt of which he only won once. There is no shame in losing to Jon Jones at the moment. No one has solved that puzzle yet. But since his knee surgeries, Mauricio Rua has not been the same young fighter we first saw in Pride. That does not mean he does not have the skill set to defeat Dan Henderson. He still very dynamic on the fit, with an array of strikes and kicks that few can match. Shogun is very heavy handed and with an iron chin equal to or greater than Henderson's. The beating he took at the hands of Jon Jones without ever losing consciousness is a testament to that. The knock on Mauricio since his UFC debut has been lack of stamina. He fades in fights. I disagree to a point. Has he faded in fights? Absolutley. But I find it difficult to believe that an athlete of his caliber with his training regimen lacks stamina. In the Jon Jones fight, few take into account the damage the body strikes Jones landed early that fight caused. He certainly did not fade in his first bout against Lyoto Machida. In that fight he was very controlled and paced, strikingly different from his natural style. Which is why I feel he tires in fights. He starts bout at a frenetic pace with an array of high level kicks, not your basic low kicks. I don't feel he trains to maintain that pace and wears himself out quickly.

Taking all this into account, I feel Dan Henderson can take a split decision victory over Mauricio Rua. There'll be fireworks early on, with maybe Dan Henderson taking a stumble. But he will fall back on his Greco-Roman base and control the match en route to a tight decision victory.

The rest of the card:

Brian Bowles finishes Urijah Faber

Wanderlai Silva posterizes Cung Le

Martin Kampmann decisions Rick Story

Kyle Kingsbury wears down Stephan Bonnar

Ryan Bader earns a split decision against Jason Brilz

Chris Weidman finishes Tom Lawlor

Miguel Torres KOs Nick Pace

Rafael dos Anjos outgrapples Gleison Tibau

Dos Santos puts the Champ Velazquez to Sleep and Ben "Smooth" Henderson Outhustles Clay Guida

Much has been made of Cain Velazquez' decision to stand against Junior dos Santos. He should have gone for the takedown, pushed him against the fence, dirty boxed, etc. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I don't know what the strategy was for Cain Velazquez. He has stated he did not follow the gameplan. Dana White was livid after the fight, stating that dos Santos tires late in fights. No one knows what would have happened if Junior dos Santos had not landed so early in the fight. What we do know is this : 1)dos Santos has and will have the heaviest, most talented hands in the Heavyweight division and anyone is a fool to intentionally stand against him. 2)Many fans, analysts and especially Cain himself had been enamored with his progress in stand up especially with the results against Brock Lesnar. But to believe that your stand up after a few years (or months) of training can be as good as someone's who has trained his entire life is ridiculous. If CroCop trained the rest of his life in wrestling, he could never out-wrestle someone like Velazquez or Lesnar. He may get the upper hand briefly, but ultimately he will lose a wrestling battle. It is very similar to Gray Maynard's success against Frankie Edgar. Gray hurt him badly twice, but in the end superior stand up, footwork and all-around MMA won the fight for Frankie Edgar. So while he is criticized by choosing to stand, let's remember all the praise he received for his 'beautiful' combinations and progress in his fights against Big Nog and Lesnar. 3)Regardless if Cain had chosen to go for a take down or the clinch, every round would start on the feet and dos Santos has shown against other grapplers to have the ability to stay on his feet or get to his feet quickly. I was wrong in my prediction that Cain Velazquez would have been able to ground and wear out Junior dos Santos. Does that make Cain a chump and Junior dos Santos unbeatable? Absolutely not. Everyone has holes, not everyone allows those to be exposed. Cain had been rocked before, does he have a glass chin? We'll find out in his next outing against a striker. Can Junior dos Santos keep every fight standing long enough to wear out or KO his opponent? So far the answer is a resounding yes. Whether it's Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem to get the next crack at the champ, both will need to sharpen every aspect of their game to stand a chance against 'Cigano.'

The biggest and best surprise of the historic night was "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Not only did he dominate Clay Guida, he made the fight exciting and went to win every minute of the fight. For anyone who believes the WEC lightweights did not belong in the UFC, take a look at Henderson's fights. He is exciting, athletic, inventive, dynamic and most of all lays it on the line every time. His scheduled match against Frankie Edgar has fight of the decade written all over it. For the first time in a while the champ will face someone with the same mobility, skill set and cardio as he does. He will not have an easy upper hand in the later rounds as he has become accustomed. We are all in for a special night when Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson meet in the Octagon.

Manny Pacquiao gets Battered by Juan Manuel Marquez and is Given the Nod by Judges

I want to start by saying I became a Manny Pacquiao fan when he evolved his boxing skills after losing to Erik Morales. So I am not a Manny Pacquiao hater. But last night when Pac Man met Juan Manuel Marquez for the third time, the worst of boxing rose to the forefront once more.

An old adage in boxing is styles make fights. After 36 rounds it is obvious that Juan Manuel Marquez has the style that will always give trouble to Manny Pacquiao. Through all his exploits, Pac Man has never distanced himself from Marquez. Last nite, Juan Manuel showed he has the tools to beat Manny Pacquiao. The problem for Marquez was that judges are human and feelings and opinion are involved in judging. The fight was very close, no one can deny that. I felt Juan Manuel Marquez won handily and when I hear the discussions on ESPN and other sports outlets on why Pacquaio was handed the victory I'm reminded why I've rarely watched boxing over the last few years and why I will never watch another boxing match again.

Watching the telecast, Harold Lederman kept calling Pac Man the aggressor and that's why he was giving him the rounds. His reasoning was that Manny was going forward. Using this logic, Floyd Mayweather should rarely win any round, as well Roy Jones Jr. in his prime,and Pernell Whitaker and any other defensive counter fighter. As even Lederman stated, that is the same logic that led him to award the fight to Sugar Leanard against Marvin Hagler. I have always disagreed with this. Assuming that moving forward equals aggression fails to take into account strategy and ring control. If Marquez' gameplan was to lure Manny Pacquiao in and counter with solid strikes and that's exactly how the fight played out, didn't he control when and where the fight took place? Didn't he have the "ring generalship" Lederman awarded to Pacquiao? Analysts point to CompuBox numbers that show Pacquiao landed a few more punches than Marquez and more power punches. But the judges did not have the ability to count punches, they watched it live and live Marquez landed better combinations and slipped and feinted Manny throughout the fight.

Then analysts say that Marquez' corner incorrectly told him he was winning and he let the foot off the gas. But, according to their CompuBox, Marquez threw the most punches of the fight in round 9 and averaged above 30 in every other round. He never let up, he continued his game plan. He did the same things that led him to win rounds throughout the fight but suddenly it wasn't enough. And what if we hadn't heard Marquez' corner tell him he was winning, what excuse would we have? And to be clear, Marquez' corner did not tell him to let up. they told him "don't get caught", "don't stand there".

My problem with this whole mess is that in the end, boxing is a popularity contest. Mayweather can be a defensive fighter and be brilliant, while others do the same and they lack ring leadership. A boxer can win a round, a fight, by throwing more punches regardless of impact or accuracy. You can win by trying as long as people like you because if Marquez had thrown and missed as much as Manny Pacquiao did, the spin would have been that Manny displayed excellent defense, not that Marquez was the aggressor. Much the same way Sugar Ray Leonard can be awarded a victory over Marvin Hagler by running around in the ring but when Pernell Whitaker used the exact same style against Oscar De La Hoya, Oscar won. Everyone loves Leonard and de La Hoya, no one likes Whitaker and Hagler. It was the same last night. Manny Pacquiao is everyone's darling and no matter what he did, he would have done enough to win. Marquez' only shot was for a knockout. Analysts  say well Manny's face was not beaten, you have to take a title not just win it, Manny has superior skills. It all sounds good but does not remove the fact that Juan Manuel Marquez used superior boxing skills, not God given talent, to outbox and defeat Manny Pacquiao? So if this is what boxing, as a whole, wants to display on one of its largest stages, then they no longer can count on me as a fan or supporter of any kind. As a whole they are unwilling to make the big fights happen and when they do have nice matchups, they are a debacle. Mayweather-Ortiz, Hopkins-Dawson. Boxing has nothing to offer for the casual fan or the hardcore one when upper echelon fighters must defeat opponents in the ring, the judges table, the CompuBox counters and popular opinion just to win a round much less a championship belt. If I want to watch popularity contests I'll just watch American Idol.

My Recent UFC Picks Record

For anyone keeping track, over the last 2 UFC's my record is 11-3 while correctly picking both main events. Not too bad I guess. We'll see how I do on this next one.

Ben Henderson and Clay Guida battle for Next Shot at Frankie Edgar

Eventhough FOX only sees fit to put the Heavyweight title fight on TV for free, a fight that promises to be a candidate for Fight of the Year is Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida. Both fighters are high octane, non-stop style that are willing to take calculated chances if they feel the outcome may win the fight. Ben Henderson has been steady throughout his career, suffering a loss early in his career than losing a tight decision to Anthony Pettis when "Showtime" landed a highlight kick to end all highlights that would have floored most men but Ben Henderson kept plugging along. Clay "the Carpenter" Guida is on a nice little run since suffering two straight losses back in 2009.

Guida has fought a who's who of the UFC's lightweight division and has held his own. Early on, Clay's all out style hurt him in the sense that it seemed he had no game plan as to how to win. His only focus was to not get hurt and hurt the other guy. But since joining Greg Jackson's camp, Clay Guida goes into matches with an idea of how to win a match against that particular opponent. Then he augments it with his kill or be killed style and goes in for the kill when the timing is right. Hence 3 finishes in his last 4 fights. But in his fight against Anthony Pettis, he reverted back to ground and hold style that won him a razor thin split decision victory that I disagreed with.
Unfortunately for Ben Henderson, Guida's style may be his Achilles heel. Ben Henderson, for all his skill and resilience, has a tendency to place himself in bad situations that he somehow works his way out of. Clay Guida is the wrong guy to end up in a bad position against. He can and is very willing to keep you in said position. Very few have the ground and pound and wrestling pedigree that Guida does in any weight division. He grounded Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis, two fighters well known for standing at will when taken down. While Ben Henderson may have shown he can escape peril thus far, if he does escape from Clay Guida's ground and pound, it will zap a lot of his will and energy. Then "The Carpenter" will utilize his elite cardio and insane pace on his way to a unanimous decision victory. Will it matter to Frankie Edgar who wins? Probably not. Frankie Edgar will face anybody, anytime.


The rest of the card :
Pablo Garza finishes Dustin Poirier
Ricardo Lamas outlasts Cub Swanson
Clay Harvison slips by Damarques Johnson
Darren Uyenoyama upsets Kid Yamamoto
Robert Peralta finishes Mackens Semerzier
Aaron Rosa KOs Matt Lucas

Can Cain Velazquez overcome Junior Dos Santos on the UFCs biggest night?

On November 12th Cain Velazquez puts his heavyweight belt on the line for the first time against Junior Dos Santos live and free on FOX. While most of the talk surrounds this being the UFCs first opportunity on broadcast television and what effect that will have on the company's bottom line, MMA fans are more interested in who will triumph in MMA's biggest heavyweight match-up since Fedor-CroCop.

Cain Velazquez has been almost unstoppable in his short 9 fight career. Tho only man to go the distance against him is the steady Cheick Kongo. Kongo is also the only man to show even a glimpse of weakness in Cain, rocking him early in that fight. But like all great gladiators, Velazquez rose to the challenge and controlled the rest of the fight. He has not been challenged by anyone else in his career. Even in his fight against Brock Lesnar, Cain showed excellent wrestling, octagon control and   veteran resilience to quickly turn the tide against the behemoth and earn a TKO heavyweight title victory. My hesitation in jumping on the brown pride bandwagon is purely aesthetic. I just wish he had been challenged more in his career. As a fan, I like to see what a fighter's made of when things are not going his way. Much like Georges St. Pierre folded (and will again the next time) when Matt Serra rocked him. but when you're as gifted and skilled as Cain Velazquez is, those rocky moments are and far between. Having a wrestling base is his biggest asset. He can control where the fight takes place. He quickly stood after a take down against Lesnar and took him down also. the one negative in his game is that he is not a natural striker and because of his success on the feet, he may believe he can bang against Junior dos Santos. Yes he knocked out Minotauro and TKO'd Brock Lesnar but Junior dos Santos will be the most complete stand-up fighter Cain has faced. Probably the best in the heavyweight division.
Junior dos Santos conversely has faced slightly higher pedigree fighters but also has yet to truly be tested. his last two fights have gone the distance but the outcome was never in doubt. In the UFC he has yet to be rocked or even in jeopardy of a submission. He has KO'd or submitted 5 of his 7 UFC opponents including the likes of Gonzaga, Werdun, Yvel and CroCop. He dismantled Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He has excellent take down defense, superior ground skills, excellent footwork, top notch cardio and the best hands in the heavyweight division. Of course, Cain Velazquez' take downs are superior to those of Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin so his take down defense will be tested. The question is, how can he beat Cain? His best shot is on the feet. Junior has shown exceptional ability to keep a fight standing via volume or superior footwork. But Cain has show similar ability. We have yet to see dos Santos on his back for a prolonged period of time and my money is on Cain Velazquez achieving that. Will Junior dos Santos wilt or rise? I feel Junior dos Santos will rise to the challenge but not enough for a victory. 
Cain Velazquez will hold his own on the feet then take the fight to the ground when the timing is right to win the early rounds. As the fight wears on Cain will use his endless cardio tank to batter and bloody Junior dos Santos with a vicious ground and pound. dos santos will fight back valiantly and show that he is worthy of a rematch but not enough to wrest the championship gold from Cain Velazquez.

Leben and Munoz Clash in Historic 5 Round Tussle

Chris Leben and Mark Munoz face off in the main event of UFC 138 on tape delay on SpikeTV from England. Aside from pitting two evenly matched middleweights, this match is historic because it will be the first non-title five round MMA bout. Will it go the five rounds? Probably not. Mark Munoz is as good a wrestler in MMA and training with Chael Sonnen doesn't hurt either. He has the ability to take down Leben repeatedly and keep him there. If Maia couldn't submit Munoz, I doubt Chris Leben can pull off the submission. Mark Munoz learned alot after Matt Hamill head kicked him into unconsciousness. Don't strike with a striker, secure the win first. He's gone 6-1 since, his only loss coming via decision against another superb wrestler, Yushin Okami. What Chris Leben brings is a never say die attitude and the ability to entice almost anyone into brawl they can not win. Anytime you think he's out, when you think he's hurt, that's when he as at his most dangerous. His achilles is lack of defense and limited skills. Michael Bisping was able to dance around the Octagon and avoid solid strikes and Leben is susceptible to takedowns and ground and pound. In his favor is that every round starts on the feet. If he can entice Mark Munoz into a stand up battle or get Munoz to wear himself out as he did against Akiyama, he has a chance. While Chris Leben's cardio has never been up to par, he has shown to have more heart when both combatants are low on fuel. No matter, I see Mark Munoz pulling out a bloody, tough decision victory against a gutsy Leben.

The only other fight on the card that excites me is Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi. I was never one sold on Alves. I never really understood his builup to welterweight title contender. Yes, he showed exciting stand up skills but also many holes on the feet and more on the ground. He tends to get sloppy on the feet with  looping punches and little footwork. He has also been outclassed and submitted on the ground by anyone with any semblance of ground skills. And he has trouble making weight. his biggest victory, a TKO of Matt Hughes came after he grossly missed weight and probably showed up on fight night at least 10 pounds heavier than Hughes. Nonetheless, the firepower in his hands makes him a very dangerous foe for anyone. Papy Abedi shows up with a perfect 8-0 record filled with KO and submission victories. But has fought mainly C level competition. Will he fold under the bright lights pressure of a UFC debut? He is fighting on his side of the pond and will probably have friends and family in the audience cheering him on. If his standup is half as good as it is advertised, he may have what it takes to wear down Alves. But I doubt it. Thiago Alves can be outclassed and decisioned but by top level grapplers, not mid-level strikers. Alves has rarely been in trouble on the feet, most, as champion St. Pierre did, rather ground him and take their chances there. Choosing to stand against "The Pitbull" will be Papy's undoing. Expect an early second round highlight KO from Alves.

The rest of the card :

Renan "Barao" submits Brad Pickett

Terry Etim crushes Eddie Faalolotto

Cyrille Diabate earns a tough decision against Anthony Perosh

Jason Young hands Omigawa his walking papers