They bill it as the fight of the century, the fight of a lifetime. Floyd Mayweather Jr. versus Manny Pacquiao is happening May 2nd at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Six years of negotiations and, depending on who you believe, running scared by both men, we have the boxing spectacle fans have clamored for. It is unfair to say we're getting it six years too late. Hey, at least it's happening. Now the question is, who will win? Will Floyd stay undefeated? Or will Manny vanquish the biggest loud mouth in the sport?
There isn't much to say about Floyd Mayweather Jr. that hasn't been said at least one thousand times before. The man stands as high atop the mountain as anyone ever has. Certainly higher than anyone now. Before I critique him, I'll say this, I am not a fan of Floyd Mayweather Jr. But I'm also not an idiot. Mayweather is that once in a lifetime athlete who chooses the sport that fitting him perfectly and not only uses his athletic ability but also learns and grows and studies all the intricacies of his trade and adds atop all that the drive of a champion. In his youth, detractors said well he's just faster than everyone and he runs. He's not willing to stand and bang. There's truth to that. Mayweather was gifted with exceptional hand speed and footwork. I haven't seen another boxer with better footwork and mobility than Mayweather. Ever. Add to that the defensive skills taught to him by his father and uncle and you have an almost unhittable adversary. The shoulder roll, the rope a dope, the angles, then he simply disrupts your timing with his jab. As far as standing and brawling, I have to agree with Mayweather, this is boxing, not a bar fight. He uses his boxing skills to not be hit like any boxer should. He lands shots and moves away. His opponent barely realizes he's been hit with a four punch combo before Mayweather is deftly away and mocking him. In the last few years, we have seen Mayweather take much more punishment than the rest of his career combined. The most important recent fight to me is his bout against Miguel Cotto. Cotto used superb footwork to corner Mayweather and keep him against the ropes while landing jabs and body shots. Somehow Mayweather managed to outland and outwork Cotto to win. This proved two things: making Mayweather stop and slug would not be the easy answer to defeating him and it proved his mettle and grit. Mayweather, if you like him or not, is not going to fold with adversity. The Maidana fights didn't prove much. Maidana muscled and brawled Mayweather, fought a little dirty, but past round 6 of the first fight was outclassed by the much better boxer. But the question lingered, are Mayweather's legs gone?
Manny Pacquiao is an offensive machine. He has been from the moment he burst onto American screens. He may be the hardest hitting little guy in boxing, with speed in his hands and Freddie Roach to reign in and direct all those great physical attributes. Long gone are the days of the Manny Pacquiao who lost to Erik Morales. Getting outboxed and outmaneuvered because all he had was a powerful straight left hand. This Manny punches from many and awkward angles, with both hands. He is no longer reckless but disciplined. His movement is superb and geared to cornering and destroying his prey. In the ring, there is no backing up or running from Manny. He knows one direction. Forward. That works wonders when sheer volume and power can dismantle your opponent. Lately, in the occasions it hasn't, Manny has struggled. Manny has pointed to calve issues and at times lack of focus for some of his lackluster performances. Reality is age has crept on him slowly. By no means is he a shot fighter, long from it. But he is not the juggernaut that trampled all who dared to stand in his way from 2006 to 2010. That many Pacquiao kept a pace that no one, I mean no one, could keep up with. Striking with impunity and shattering dreams. Once Freddie Roach showed him how and when to use his right hand, Manny became unstoppable offensively. Yes, his defense lacks, but for one or two punches hi opponents landed, Manny landed five or six mule kicks on them. Then his foe was on the run and defense no longer mattered. Except for one foe. Juan Manuel Marquez. If Manny is Superman, Marquez is kryptonite. Marquez outboxed Manny in every fight. But Manny knocked Marquez down in every fight to win split and majority decisions. Even with the knockdowns, many, including me, believe Marquez won all the matches. Their last match? Marquez left no doubt, planting Manny flat on his face unconscious for several minutes while he celebrated his victory. Tim Bradley is another important opponent for Manny. Whether you believe Manny defeated Bradley in their first outing or not, you must agree that Manny struggled with Bradley's speed and defense, missing many more punches than is his norm. It's not like he looked horrible, he struggled. He missed punches during exchanges while Bradley landed. The rematch Manny looked much better after the first few rounds and dominated. But again, the question remained, has Manny slowed down or was Bradley just that good?
THE OUTCOME
As hated as Floyd Mayweather Jr. may be, the fact is he is currently the best. Not only is he physically superior to Manny, Manny does not possess the ring acumen of Mayweather. He never will. That knowledge only comes from being raised by two great boxing minds like his father and uncle and Floyd having the boxing humility to absorb that knowledge, not relying on his pure physical attributes. Manny will start fast, he always does and Mayweather will have to avoid an early left or hook. Mayweather has never been hit with the power of the likes of Manny, but he has been hit and he has overcome. After the first three or four rounds, I see Floyd outboxing Manny in every facet. Using his jab and counter punching. The impeccable timing that only he possesses. I see Manny constantly pushing and punching, doing his all to corner Mayweather, but failing. The Marquez battles are the blueprint to beating Manny and Mayweather has those exact skills, but many times better. He will find and exploit all of Manny's holes and weaknesses much as he did against Marquez. Manny will not slow down or quit. He will take a ton of damage, but Mayweather does not pack the punch to knock Manny out cold. The timing to land the perfect punch? Maybe. Mayweather's speed and ability to stay in the pocket moments at a time and avoid punches will befuddle Manny. His straight left will find air while Floyd lands hooks and straights to the body. If Manny stands a chance he will have to find a way to stop and corral Mayweather. If Mayweather survived and outworked Cotto, he won't Manny. That's Manny's only chance, aside from a one punch knockout, and I find that to be a slim one. Mayweather can win a variety of ways, including a knockout. Putting someone to sleep is not only power but timing and Floyd has plenty of that. Mayweather can outbox, out land, and, like it or not, out hustle Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather didn't come this far to have a 'one' on his record.
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