Johnny Hendricks (-320) vs. Matt Brown (+260)
After a few relatively easy fights. Johnny Hendricks has been involved in three straight 5 round wars, two of which he lost. Depending on which end of the cage you were sitting at, one could easily argue he won those two. They were that close. He lost the UFC Welterweight title without a single defense. But Hendricks remains in the elite tier of the world's welterweights. Hendricks is a top-level wrestler. Not just pure wrestler, but MMA wrestler. His single and double set ups from striking are devastating. He is superb at maintaining top-control and punishing his opponent, albeit his ground and pound is not vicious a la Tito Ortiz. Hendricks wrestling is at a level where he could conceivably win every fight via decision. But he made his name with highlight KO's of Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann from with power from a left hand that forgives no one. Hendricks has good boxing with a decent tie ups and clinch work. He tends to overpower his opponent and use wrestling hand and arm control to win the clinch. He unveiled good kicks in his last few fights, but a kickboxer he is not.
In Matt Brown he faces an iron willed warrior. Brown is not excellent at any one thing, except moving forward and pushing his opponent. He posses above average power but not lights power like Hendricks. He prefers stand up and can stuff some takedowns. His kickboxing is good albeit limited. His strength again, is his will and tenacity. He will take punishment and not let up. He will push his opponent's heart. His fight with Erick Silva is the perfect example. Silva albeit a talented young fighter had no answer for a man willing to die in the cage. Brown also lost a decision to Robbie Lawler because he faced a much better and skilled striker. Lawler chose when to engage and how. Brown needs a dog fight, his opponent to abandon a gameplan and slug. He has been successful in baiting oppnents into his game, but has almost no answers when they don't.
Johnny Hendricks has all the tools to win and control any fight. But he has fallen in love with knocking people out. I will never believe that someone who learns to strike in his later years can become a better striker than a lifelong pugilist. They may know the technique and be able to copy it, but it will not compare to that of a pure striker. Just like someone like Alistair Overeem will never become an elite wrestler. His love for striking is the only way for Hendricks to lose this fight. If he allows himself to be baited into a fire fight with Matt Brown there is a high likely hood he could go to sleep. Matt Brown can take a punch, he has to, his defense is full of holes. But he can also dish it out in the midst of his opponent's onslaught. If Hendricks decides he can stand and bang with Brown instead of utilizing his wrestling, Brown has the tools to turn the tide. Hendricks has shown in previous fights to have a tank that runs low from time to time. His wrestling has allowed him to surpass those moments and he needs to keep that in mind during this fight. He can't let rounds slip as this is only a three round fight. Hendricks has shown increased cage IQ, so unless he abandons all he's learned I expect him to win a grueling three round decision. Matt Brown has yet to KO'd in his career, I don't expect Hendricks to change that.
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