UFC 128 Shogun vs. Jones in Newark, New Jersey will hopefully show fans where the evolution of MMA will lead. The main event pits champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua against the top prospect in the light heavyweight division, Jon “Bones” Jones. This will be Shogun's first title defense and Jones' first title fight. Odds makers have Jones as an 8 to 5 favorite over the champion and with good reason.
Few fighters have created as much buzz and fan awe as Jon Jones has. His record is 12 – 1 with his only loss coming via disqualification after after cutting and blooding Matt Hamill. With the exception of that loss he has finished his last four opponents inside the Octagon including the previously unbeaten Ryan Bader and tough veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. He introduced spinning back elbows and simply jumping over an adversary to take their back. He is athletic, exciting, unorthodox and a sponge for the sport of MMA. All fans can think of is how good and how far can Jon Jones go?
If you listen to all this hype you can't help but assume that Shogun Rua is only safekeeping Jones' championship belt. You would be terribly wrong. In his pride days, Shogun was much like Jon Jones is now. He did things in the ring that no one else had or could. He finished opponents, he knocked people out (Ricardo Arona), he made others quit (Rampage Jackson). It seemed the only thing keeping from holding Pride gold was that his mentor and good friend Wanderlei Silva held that belt. Then the injuries came and the surgeries then Pride folded into the UFC and a long layoff followed. He looked tired and not at all like his old self in his first few UFC bouts, especially in his loss to Forrest Griffin. But the Shogun of old returned beginning with his knockout of MMA legend Chuck Liddell. In his first UFC title fight against Lyoto Machida he lost a controversial decision but avenged that with a first round knock out in the rematch. Now he faces Jon Jones and a highly anticipated bout.
Anyone who assumes Shogun will be outclassed and over matched on the feet by Jones forgets Shogun knocked out Alistair Overeem. Shogun solved the Machida puzzle and made Rampage Jackson quit. Jones does possess a large physical advantage over Shogun on the feet but Shogun is not new to anything in MMA. He has the technical skill to neutralize or overcome this disadvantage. The other common assumption is that Jones will out-wrestle and out-grapple Shogun. While does not possess a direct wrestling background, his jiu-jitsu is above average and has used it to gain an advantage on the ground. He was not outwrestled by Kevin Randleman or Mark Coleman (in their second encounter). Shogun has not been overwhelmed by any opponent in his career and I don't expect Jon Jones to be the first. Shogun will be game for whatever the fight brings.
The bigger question for me is how Jon Jones will react to adversity. In all his UFC bouts, Jon Jones has dominated. He has not been in a second of trouble, which is what has made him such a fan favorite. But to me, the best measure of a a fighter is how he takes a punch, how he overcomes a tough opponent. That is what has made fighters like Randy Couture and Fedor Emelianenko favorites. They won, but they also when at times when the odds where stacked against the. We have not had the opportunity to see Jon Jones face those odds. I have a feeling he will be put in dire straits in this bout by Shogun and I also believe his vast physical attributes will carry past the troubles towards a victory against Shogun.
I expect the bout to be exciting and thrilling and set a new standard of excellence for MMA and the UFC. We will see the crowning of a new king of the light heavyweight division with hopes that he can defend that title better than the last few that have held it.
Here are my picks for the remaining fights :
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland – Faber via TKO round 3
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland – Benavidez via Unanimous decision
CroCop vs. Brendan Schaub – Schaub via TKO round 2
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus – Miller via decision
Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller – Marquardt via TKO round 2
Raphael Assuncao vs. Erik Koch – Koch via decision
Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle – Almeida via decision
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau – Pellegrino via TKO round 3
Anthony Njokuani vs. Edson Barboza Jr. - Barboza via TKO round 2
Constantinos Philippou vs. Nick Catone – Catone via KO round 1
Luis Artur Cane Jr. vs. Eliot Marshal – Cane via KO round 1
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